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AP Photo: Matt Campbell of Iowa State chats with Kirk Ferentz of Iowa ahead of their game at Ames in 2019.
Saturday’s historic Iowa-Iowa State football game focuses on all those Hawkeyes and cyclones are all about. The narrative makes sense, given that this will be the first time in the rivalry’s history that the two programs are ranked in the Top 10 at kick-off.
The buzz is both justified and deserved. No matter who wins at Jack Trice Stadium, these teams will likely get bigger and better in their respective backgrounds. Iowa appears to be one of the early favorites to play in the Big Ten West Division Championship, especially after their impressive dismantling from Indiana last week. Iowa State, with nearly all of the starters returning this season, is poised to defend its Big 12 title in the regular season.
For all their might – and we’ll see a lot at Ames – picking a winner often comes down to identifying the question marks. It is usually too early to get an accurate reading of the full potential of the Hawkeyes and Cyclones; Seeing them play every year in September is more of a snapshot than a lasting image. It is therefore difficult to assess.
I’m a little concerned with what I saw up front from both teams last week. All-American trailback Breece Hall had very little leeway against a northern Iowa defense, rushing for a 69-yard pedestrian on 23 carries. Tyler Goodson went wild for a 56-yard touchdown to roll the ball against the Hoosiers, but on his next 18 attempts, Goodson only managed 43 extra yards.
The ISU is more installed on its offensive line, bringing back almost everyone from a year ago. Hall’s paltry performance will likely prove to be more of a long-term aberration than the rule. Goodson is incredibly talented – one of my last favorite Ferentz backs, in fact – but there are still moving parts up front for the Hawkeyes. All-American center Tyler Linderbaum is expected to be fine despite being hit and leaving the game last Saturday. Linderbaum is the only incumbent, however, on a line that is otherwise still a work in progress.
I know a lot of Iowa fans aren’t completely on Spencer Petras’ train. I actually think he’ll be a useful quarterback in the long run; nothing flashy, but in the mold of his predecessor, Nate Stanley. That being said, Petras is making its first real road start in a harsh environment on Saturday, given that all of the competitions last year were run under strict COVID-19 protocols. Petras is still an unknown to this day, especially in a situation like this.
For all of his success and deserved adulation, Cyclone head coach Matt Campbell still hasn’t won in four tries against Iowa. Small sample size, yes, but it’s a big time in the Campbell era when it comes to building momentum both on the show and on the recruiting trail in the state.
Iowa State hasn’t beaten Iowa by more than three points since 2005, but the Cyclones are favored 4.5 points heading into Saturday’s showdown. Free money? Not so fast. I traditionally ride with the home team in this annual prediction column, and this time around it will be no different. I know what we saw last Saturday seems to indicate otherwise, but I still feel like Iowa has more questions than answers at this point and Iowa State will come back to life after a shaky performance against the Panthers.
Prediction: Iowa State 27, Iowa 20.
Eric Pratt is a sports writer at The Messenger. Contact him by email at [email protected], or on Twitter @ByEricPratt
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