This is what China and Russia can do

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The United States may or may not have a space force, but if President Trump is dedicated to creating a new branch of the US military and destroying the military bureaucracy, it should be keep in mind that other countries have their space program strengths. A recent DIA report highlights how the United States sees these programs, particularly those of Russia and China, that do not seem particularly threatening – for the moment anyway.

This week, President Donald Trump signed Space Policy Directive 4, ordering the Pentagon to support the Space Force as a new branch of the US military. The Space Force, which still requires the blessing of Congress, is miles away from the ability to lay moon boots on the ground, and its existence – not to mention its usefulness – remains a mystery to many. To examine how fans justify space power, it is useful to look at potential US adversaries, especially Russia and China, and what the US government claims to be doing in space .

Russia is potentially the main US opponent in space, at least for the moment. The Russian spacecraft is a legacy of the USSR in the Cold War era and the country has many operational extraterrestrial equipment. The USSR never landed on the moon of astronauts nor flown a reusable spacecraft such as the Space Shuttle, but it was the first country to place a man in space (and unlike the United States, Russia can still do it today) and revolves around the space station Mir long before the International Space Station is in the sky.

The USSR was also undoubtedly the first to militarize space, placing a gun from the Salyut-3 space station, and the Pentagon is still wary of Russia's intentions. The Pentagon is particularly concerned about Russia's military counter-space program, which, in its view, is aimed directly at the United States. The Defense Intelligence Agency's Space Security Challenges Report, published in February 2019, states that "Russia perceives the perceived dependence of the United States on space as the" Achilles' heel "of the American military power, which can be exploited to achieve the objectives of the Russian conflict. "

It continues:

Russia is seeking to neutralize or deny US space, military and commercial space services in order to counterbalance a perceived US military advantage and develop a set of weapons designed to interfere with or destroy an opponent's satellites.

How is Russia planning to do this? First, Moscow needs to know which US space assets to target in wartime. Despite the loss of the economic and military power of the Soviet Union at large, Russia still retains a network of "telescopes, radar and other sensors" capable of detecting and tracking US satellites and other space objects. Russia would probably depart from NAVSTAR GPS satellites under military control (24 of them), Milstar military communications satellites (eight), satellites of the defense satellite communication system (seven) and dozens of warning satellites. early missile reconnaissance and surveillance. The loss of GPS satellites, in particular, would affect civilian smartphones and other GPS users around the world.

Interfering with spatial resources does not necessarily require a visit to space. Moscow has led the development of GPS scrambling technology, as recently detected in the Black Sea and near the Russian-Norwegian border. It could also cause interference with satellites and their ability to transmit messages between ground forces. Finally, piracy of satellites or ground stations could prevent their use by opponents. Not only do none of these measures actually involve an outing in the space, but in some cases they can be performed in the comfort of your home.

A simple solution is to trigger a terrestrial laser on a satellite in low Earth orbit, to blind or disable it. The new DIA report warns that the Peresvet laser weapon, deployed in late 2018, is designed to attack enemy satellites. The DIA also reports that Russia is probably testing a "ground-based mobile missile system" for the destruction of ballistic missiles and incoming satellites.

China is the other great space power. China launched its first satellite in April 1970, but expanded its space activities in the late 1990s and into the 2000s, as the country experienced rapid economic growth. China launched its first taikonaute, Yang Liwei, in space in 2003, landed in January 2019 a probe on the other side of the moon.

Like Russia, the United States is worried about Chinese counter-space activities potentially targeting US satellites. Like Russia, China has a network of space surveillance capabilities including telescopes, radar and space-based vessels such as the small fleet of Yuan Wang Spaceships, including two huge high-frequency satellite dishes and high-capacity optical tracking stations, can monitor satellites in space.

The Defense Intelligence Agency believes that China is following a path similar to that of Russia, developing counter-space capabilities that can paralyze US forces in war. The DIA thinks that China will try to interfere with the satellites from the ground, but it is also ready to physically attack the satellites: Chinese research on satellites that can close with objects in space , repair satellites and clean "space debris". the DIA argues that one could use to hunt good enemy satellites and disable them.

China also has an anti-satellite missile, the SC-19, which is currently operational. The SC-19 was tested in 2007 against the obsolete Fengyun-1C weather satellite, an event perceived with concern, not only because it was an anti-satellite weapon, but also because it produced more than 3 000 hazardous space debris. The Pentagon thinks China is developing ground-based anti-satellite weapons, including a laser that could damage the optics of spy satellites by 2020 and, in the future, a more powerful laser to disable GPS and communication satellites.

Russian and Chinese counter-space efforts are only part of the two countries' military space efforts, but both appear to be squarely aimed at US military space assets. For example, they do not work to place in the space of nuclear weapons or other likely to be dropped on the heads of ordinary Americans. Both countries are realizing a key truth about the modern American war mode: if the war were to unfold, America would wage its wars in someone else's court. In the event of war, US forces would use communications and navigation satellites to coordinate the flow of ships, aircraft, and troop formations thousands of kilometers across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, to the gates of Russia and from China. US Space Force lawyers believe that Russia, China and other entities are looking for ways to disrupt the wartime flood and give themselves an edge. It's a pretty natural reaction to a potential opponent.

There are strangers here who should give us a break. We do not know how much the real claims of Russian and Chinese ground anti-satellite lasers are. The Pentagon had for the first time warned against a similar Soviet laser weapon in 1985, but the current system was far from having the status of weapon. Another thing we do not know is the intention of Russia and China to use anti-satellite weapons. Although early use by both countries may be beneficial in a classic war, the benefits could be short-lived. Moscow and Beijing will have to determine whether it is more important to slow down Americans or avoid a war in space that could annihilate their own fleet of satellites.

Is there enough threat to justify a completely new arm of the Pentagon? The answer is "probably not yet". As important as our military satellites are, the threat they face is relatively small at the moment. Space Force proponents have not really answered the question of how a new branch of the military bureaucracy would do a better job than the current military bureaucracy, and the current leadership of the United States lacks credibility. As the US economy becomes more and more space-based, a space force is inevitable. But now, in 2019? It does not seem to make sense.