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Earlier this month, Indian-administered Kashmir lost its most powerful voice demanding liberation from the New Delhi regime: Syed Ali Shah Geelani.
Geelani deceased September 1 after a long illness at his residence in the main city of Srinagar, where he had been under house arrest for years. He was 92 years old.
For decades, Geelani led the Kashmiri separatist group, All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), which advocates either for the region’s merger with Muslim-majority Pakistan or for the creation of an independent nation outside the Himalayan territory. .
Fearing a mass funeral procession for the disappearance of the iconic leader, the Indian authorities “Ripped off his body” shortly after his death and hastily buried him at night – without even the presence of his family members.
New Delhi has also imposed a security lockdown and cut internet and phone services in anticipation of protests and protests in the disputed area following Geelani’s death.
His grave continues to be fenced off by a contingent of Indian police and paramilitary troops, with several vehicles permanently parked outside Srinagar cemetery.
Three weeks after Geelani’s death, questions are being raised in Indian-administered Kashmir about the future of its separatist movement against the backdrop of a series of repressive measures taken by the Hindu-nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, especially since 2019 .
In August of the same year, India unilaterally scrapped Articles 370 and 35A of India’s constitution, which granted the country’s only Muslim-majority region – also claimed by neighboring Pakistan – some autonomy, turning it into a territory ruled by the federal government.
New Delhi’s most ambitious initiative in seven decades of Kashmir struggle was followed by a months-long security lockdown imposed on the valley and the arrest of hundreds of Kashmiri politicians, rights activists, separatists, lawyers and others.
Since then, the Indian government has imposed new laws governing property rights and land rights, which Kashmiris say are aimed at changing the demographics of the region.
Geelani, according to many Kashmiris, was the last strong separatist leader in the region, who openly challenged Indian rule and enjoyed overwhelming local support.
He leave the APHC last year, but the organization did not name his successor until his death. The new head of APHC is Masarat Alam Bhat, 50, who spent 17 years of his life in prison.
With Bhat remaining in prison, many political commentators in Indian-administered Kashmir believe his appointment as the new head of APHC will have little significant effect on the ground.
Who is Masarat Alam Bhat?
Bhat, a loyalist of Geelani, is a staunch anti-Indian leader who believes Kashmiris should have the right to self-determination. He was to succeed Geelani after Ashraf Sehrai, the 77-year-old second in command, death in prison in May of this year.
Sehrai was in custody under the draconian Public Security Act (PSA), a law that allows a person to remain in jail for up to a year without trial.
Bhat, a science graduate, had a brief stint in the armed rebellion against India during his teenage years before being arrested and released two years later in 1993. After marching free, he co-founded the Muslim League, a pro-freedom group that was part of the APHC.
Bhat is seen as the product of the umbrella organization’s split into two factions – hard-line supporters and moderates – in 2003. After the split, Bhat joined the hard-line faction led by Geelani.
Hard-line supporters pleaded for a settlement of the Kashmir dispute under a UN Security Council resolution and refused to engage with New Delhi.
In April 1948, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution calling on the governments of India and Pakistan to “create conditions conducive to a free and impartial plebiscite to decide whether the state of Jammu and Kashmir should accede to it.” India or Pakistan ”.
The Hurriyat moderates, on the other hand, participated in the dialogue with India and Pakistan and were open to unconditional talks with the Indian government.
While Bhat has been part of separatist politics for more than two decades, he gained great popularity in 2010 when he led thousands of young people in Srinagar who protested against the murder of teenage Tufail Mattoo by the forces. Indian security.
The unrest continued for months and saw the killing of over 100 civilians by Indian forces. As the crackdown in India intensified, Bhat went underground from where he secretly published protest calendars until his arrest in October 2010.
The uprising made him a charismatic leader, mainly among the youth of Indian administered Kashmir.
Bhat has been in jail since 2015 after being held under PSA, a law Amnesty International has called “lawlessness.” Frequently, the PSA against him would be revoked and he would immediately be sentenced in another case under the same law.
He is currently imprisoned in connection with a case related to alleged “financing of terrorism”, like many other separatist leaders in the region.
“The resistance is not dead”
Over the past two years, New Delhi has managed to maintain a tight grip on the part of Kashmir it rules. A crackdown by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) against separatist groups has resulted in many of their leaders being jailed for allegations of “money laundering” and other cases.
Meanwhile, groups such as the socio-religious Jamaat-e-Islami and the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) have been banned for their “secessionist” ideologies.
The besieged separatist groups suffered another setback with the death of Geelani, nicknamed “Bab” (father in Kashmir) by his supporters.
Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a political and academic analyst based in the region, says the history of Kashmir has witnessed several times when a group’s survival was seen through the lens of a popular leader.
But, he says, popular feelings for the right to self-determination among the people of the region have always eclipsed their leaders.
“Sheikh Abdullah abandoned separatism and joined the state as chief minister in 1975 when Pakistan lost its eastern wing, but the resistance is not dead. On the contrary, Sheikh’s abdication made separatism deeper and more mobile, ”Hussain told Al Jazeera.
In 1975, Kashmiri nationalist Sheikh Abdullah signed an agreement with then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, under which he renounced the demand for independence and took over the reins of the state.
“I don’t think the death of a leader or an individual or the change of sides of an individual will have a big impact on the resistance,” Hussain said.
Husain believes that the appointment of Bhat as Geelani’s successor was “an obvious and expected decision”.
“The situation is such that if they appoint someone who is outside (a prison), he would be arrested. There were two options for the new incumbent if he was on the outside: either go underground or be arrested, ”he said.
“They cannot afford to go underground because Hurriyat claims to be a surface organization and not to be involved in underground activity.”
Government officials in the region say the appointment of a jailed leader to head the Hurriyat conference makes no difference on the ground.
“In the turmoil of 2010, Bhat was a mass leader. Because of his hawkish stance on certain issues, he was close to Pakistani circles or to those who subscribed to this ideology, “an official, who declined to be named, told Al Jazeera, calling Bhat a” very honest man. and law ”.
“But over time, the rigidity of its position on Kashmir has slowly diminished. We can’t call it moderate but the rigid mindset he had at the start has slowly changed a bit, ”he added.
The official said that in the current political scenario in Indian-administered Kashmir, Bhat’s appointment “means nothing” and “hardly counts”.
“He’s in prison and he can’t do anything. And on the ground, the Hurriyat is dismantled.
Ajai Sahni, executive director of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management, told Al Jazeera that the new leadership of APHC cannot cope with Geelani’s “dominant influence”.
“I don’t think the separatists would be able to have a significant impact on the ground due to factors such as the loss of Geelani, the loss of popular support and the constraints in which all political activity takes place,” he said. he declared.
Sahni, however, added that it would be premature to start making predictions about Hurriyat’s future.
“Given the political situation, the politics of the center and the degree to which political activities remain limited, all of these factors would influence what the Hurriyat will be able to do,” he said.
“In addition, Bhat and many Hurriyat leaders are now involved in criminal cases that will automatically limit their ability to conduct open political activity. “
But Siddiq Wahid, a former vice-chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology and political commentator on the disputed region, believes that “Hurriyat’s demise has already been predicted on several occasions, but these predictions more reflect a wish on the part predictors and less the situation on the ground ”.
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