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Expect to see data this month from several clinical trials that attempt to establish whether ‘mixing and matching’ different COVID-19 vaccines is safe and effective or whether it is better to get the same booster that is used. in the first round of vaccines.
There are two ways to think about what type of COVID-19 booster you can get: In one scenario, you get a counterpart booster, which is the same move you got for the initial round. A heterologous booster, or “mix-and-match”, allows you to get a different vaccine based on its availability or improved efficacy.
This is an important scientific distinction that will likely be used to inform more about how COVID-19 booster injections will be rolled out in the United States.
“There will be situations for one reason or another where a person may not have the option of being boosted with the same product they were originally vaccinated with,” Dr Anthony Fauci told McClatchy last month, Chief Medical Advisor to President Joe Biden.
But analysts say the mix of COVID-19 shots could also dampen revenue projections for vaccine market leaders.
“If the ongoing mixed trials show that the latest entrants’ products are as effective at stimulating as the original innovative vaccines themselves, then these companies are expected to earn potentially significant revenues in the short term and will almost certainly take a significant share of the money. any tail. future revenue from the COVID vaccine exists, ”SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges told investors this week.
Four manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines – AstraZeneca AZN,
AZN,
Johnson & Johnson JNJ,
Moderna Inc.’s MNA,
and Pfizer Inc. PFE,
market leaders – are expected to generate $ 46 billion in revenue for their COVID-19 snapshots in 2022.
About $ 19 billion in sales generated so far in the past year has come from selling the first doses of their injections.
What to expect from mix-and-match clinical trials
For the moment, only recipients of BioNTech SE BNTX,
and Pfizer vaccine may be boosted (depending on their health, age and occupation) in the United States.
These are considered homologous boosters.
But more research is underway to assess whether it’s okay to mix vaccines, and there are already preliminary studies that indicate mixing vaccines is safe and could trigger a stronger immune response in some cases.
A US study, conducted by the National Institutes of Health and testing a Moderna booster with other types of vaccines, is expected to release its findings on Oct. 15 at a Food and Drug Administration consultative meeting assessing the recall request for NOT A WORD.
The results of a UK trial called Cov-Boost are also expected this month.
A preprint published in June in the UK found that mixing the BioNTech / Pfizer and AstraZeneca / University of Oxford vaccines triggered better immunity than using AstraZeneca injections alone. German researchers said, also in June, that mixing the same vaccines as in the UK could “improve immunogenicity and alleviate potential intermittent supply shortages for individual vaccines.”
How Vaccine Mix May Impact Revenue Projections for COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturers
Depending on how the data evolves, this could have a big impact on the market share held by the major manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines.
If clinical data shows it is safe and effective to use another type of COVID-19 booster, it could allow some of the smaller companies developing yet exploratory injections to enter and gain market share, according to Porges.
“If the mix-and-match boost proves to be as effective or better than three doses of an mRNA vaccine, PFE and mRNA may capture less of the long tail of COVID vaccine revenue than the currently predicted price.” , he wrote, “and companies like Sanofi, Novavax, Valneva and Clover Biopharmaceuticals could participate in this market.
Sanofi SNY,
SNYNF,
is currently testing the investigational recombinant protein vaccine and booster it developed with GlaxoSmithKline in Phase 3 clinical trials. (Sanofi said on September 28 that it would stop developing its mRNA injection.)
NVAX from Novavax Inc.,
The COVID-19 vaccine candidate is expected to be submitted to the FDA for approval soon.
Valneva SE VALN,
is a French biotech that is still evaluating its experimental COVID-19 shot in clinical trials, while Clover Biopharmaceuticals is a private Chinese biotech with a vaccine candidate in phase 2/3 trials.
So far this year, US-listed shares of AstraZeneca have gained 18.8%, shares of J&J have risen slightly by 0.4%, shares of Moderna have climbed 201.8% and Pfizer shares gained 13.5%. The S&P 500 SPX,
is up 15.7% in 2021.
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