Powerful plains storm could trigger isolated tornadoes and severe storms in Michigan and the Great Lakes

A greatly intensified storm system over the plains this evening with a movement across the Great Lakes region Monday evening and Tuesday. Even though the timing of crossing Michigan tends to escape major severe weather events, severe weather experts at NOAA still believe severe weather events are possible.

Here are the forecasts for the three types of severe weather tornadoes, severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is a five percent chance of a tornado occurring in the western half of Lower Michigan and the extreme eastern UP. 2021. For Michigan, the time most likely to have a tornado or other severe weather event is Tuesday from 2 am to 8 am. The tornado possibility area includes Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Coldwater, Lansing, Midland, Mount Pleasant, Cadillac, Traverse City, Mackinaw City and Sault Ste. Married.

The area with the potential for damage from strong wind gusts during thunderstorms and hail of an inch or more is the same area as the tornado risk.

The Storm Prediction Center gives Michigan the opportunity for severe weather conditions depending on the storm’s upper level dynamics. We do know, however, that the time of day is a big factor in creating extreme weather conditions. The heat of the afternoon and early evening creates the most volatile part of the day. If storms arrive early in the morning as expected, our risk of severe weather could be lower than currently indicated.

In fact, in the Storm Prediction Center’s discussion of severe weather, they say, “As the deep-layer flow becomes more southerly (further south to north), convection (thunderstorms) may tend to be undermined by the breaking cold front. If this happens, the severe threat will be somewhat lessened as the convection becomes high. »High thunderstorms do not bring strong gusts of wind to the ground.

Looking at one of the best weather patterns, it looks like a line of severe storms could hit the southwest corner of Michigan around 2 a.m. on Tuesday. The storm line would then weaken as it moved east.

It’s almost mid-October. It is definitely worth watching and alerting you as severe weather could be surprising at this time of year.