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A new type of blood test promises to predict the risk of death of a person in the next 10 years based on a dozen different biomarkers. With an accuracy of 83%, it is much better than any existing conventional model.
The researchers looked at 16-year-old data for 44,168 people aged 18 to 109, of whom 5,512 died during their study.
By testing 14 different biomarkers associated with general health, as opposed to the risk of contracting specific diseases, the researchers were able to produce what they consider to be the most accurate all-cause mortality test currently available.
They tested biomarkers, including various amino acid levels, "good" and "bad" cholesterol levels, fatty acid imbalances, inflammation, overall immune response, and glucose control. However, the blood test is far from a large clinical deployment.
The test is too short to provide total mortality parameters for the general population but can generate an overall mortality assessment to use, for example, to evaluate the potential effectiveness of a new drug compared to a basic mortality rate of the elderly.
The researchers were keen to be aware of the patient's biological age rather than his schedule in order to more productively and predictably treat any potential future illness to which he might be susceptible.
One criticism that limits the scope of the study is that all participants were mainly of European descent; it is therefore necessary to continue research on different ethnic groups.
In addition, the team recognizes that if the blood test is "a marker of your current health and your physical vulnerability," it is not concrete. "Plan how long you will live if you have a hand in it yourself."
"If the blood test indicates your physical vulnerability, it tells you how long you will live and your family sees it and you change your lifestyle, you can live twice as long", said Dr. Joris Deelen of the Max Planck Institute of Aging Biology of Cologne, Germany.
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