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COVID-19 has already had catastrophic social, economic and public health consequences, with more than 107 million documented cases and 2.3 million deaths. While this pandemic is far from over, we now have the tools to end it, with the world’s largest and fastest vaccine deployment. The fact that we got there so quickly so quickly is remarkable, but next time we might not be so lucky. More virulent and deadly coronaviruses wait behind the scenes. So the world needs a universal vaccine against the coronavirus.
The speed at which safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and made available is unprecedented, taking less than a year. However, if faced with a more virulent strain with a higher case fatality rate than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), even this rapid delay may not be enough to avoid a death toll at the scale of 1918. influenza pandemic, which killed more than 50 million people. Additionally, there is a continued risk that the virus could mutate in ways that make existing COVID-19 vaccines less effective – as we have already seen for the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa – or even ineffective.
As with the flu, the case for a vaccine that protects all people against all forms of coronavirus is strong. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a diverse group of viruses, thousands of which are capable of infecting a wide range of animals, from bats and pangolins to pigs and mink. SARS-CoV-1, which appeared in 2002, had a mortality rate of 10%; The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 was 34% fatal.
The potential is increasing for other coronaviruses to jump species and cause more pandemics. There are many reasons. Animals infected with viruses are those with which humans come into regular contact. Modern agricultural practices, viral evolution, and human encroachment on the natural environment mean that there is an increasing risk that people will encounter previously isolated animal populations that harbor new strains with pandemic potential. With human migration, population growth, urbanization, rapid movements around the world and climate change accelerating the spread, it has never been easier for epidemics to turn into epidemics and escalate into pandemics.
At the same time, the recent convergence of technological advancements in biomedical, computer and engineering sciences has ushered in a new era in the discovery of antigens and vaccines. High-performance intensive computing and machine learning, combined with structural modeling, have the potential to dramatically speed up the identification of common antigenic targets shared between coronaviruses. Genetic sequence databases from animal coronavirus isolates can be used to model the evolutionary emergence of viruses. Ongoing efforts to decode the principles of immunity in aging populations may improve the effectiveness of vaccines for the most vulnerable. Collectively, studies now suggest that the development of a universal vaccine against the coronavirus is scientifically feasible.
It must be a global effort. A roadmap is needed to define fundamental scientific questions as well as a framework for funding and sharing information, data and resources. From the start, it will be essential to set up a global surveillance network for zoonotic coronaviruses such as the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System of the World Health Organization or the PREDICT program of the United States Development Agency. international (which was canceled last year). In addition, a global effort to identify neutralizing antibodies broadly specific to coronaviruses is needed to facilitate the discovery of cross-reactive coronavirus antigens.
None of this can happen until all stakeholders, across governments, industry, academia and non-governmental organizations, recognize this as a global public health priority. With COVID-19, much of the groundwork has been done. Waiting for the end of this crisis could turn out to be a missed opportunity. It is estimated that the current pandemic will cost between US $ 8 trillion and US $ 16 trillion worldwide, 500 times more than what would be needed to prevent the next pandemic.
That’s not to say it will be easy, and a phased approach from COVID-19 to pan-coronavirus to universal coronavirus vaccines may be necessary. SARS-CoV-2 adapts rapidly to humans, and other new coronaviruses mutate, recombine and replicate in bats and other animal species, positioning themselves to jump species in the future. If we choose to wait until the next coronavirus emerges, it may be too late, as was the case with COVID-19. Creating tools to prevent the next coronavirus pandemic is within our means and should be seen as a global health priority. We can either invest now or pay much later.
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