[ad_1]
With the hope that mass vaccination programs see the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, citizens around the world are lining up for a bang.
So far, efforts to curb the outbreak by spreading immunity in this way appear to be working – but new research suggests now could be the worst time to let our guard down.
A team of scientists led by researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria calculated the risk of emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain under different scenarios using a modified model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
At the heart of each scenario was the vaccination rate in a population of 10 million over three years, and the extent to which non-pharmaceutical interventions such as mask wear and social distancing make a difference.
Unsurprisingly, a rapid deployment where everyone receives their full quota of approved vaccinations in the shortest possible time would leave the deadly coronavirus little opportunity to randomly develop antibody-resistant genes.
On the other end of the spectrum, the fact that a mutant virus spreads unhindered through a susceptible population gives the pathogen plenty of chances to roll the dice on fancy new talents that can help them jump between multiple hosts with more high efficiency.
One would imagine that the most treacherous type of pathogen – the one that would innovate to avoid our immune system in ever more insidious ways – would occur in a population where no one is vaccinated.
“In contrast, a counterintuitive result of our analysis is that the highest risk of establishing resistant strains occurs when a large portion of the population has already been vaccinated but transmission is not controlled.” the researchers conclude.
Specifically, in situations where an emerging strain is allowed to spread, its emergence occurs when approximately 60 percent of those 10 million model citizens have been fully immunized.
Having nearly two-thirds of a population with their full quota of vaccinations may seem like a good time to throw off the mask and embrace loved ones in celebrating newfound freedom. Unfortunately, based on this model’s predictions, there couldn’t be a worse time to relax.
“A simple specific recommendation is to keep transmission low even when a large portion of the population has been vaccinated by implementing acute non-pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. strict adherence to social distancing ) for a reasonable period of time, to allow the emergence of resistant strain lines to disappear, ”the researchers advise.
Every time a viral particle replicates, there is a chance that its gene library will fall into a new configuration. Any of these setups could potentially thwart an immune system that has already received a vaccine, leaving us all unprotected once again.
We don’t have to make this lottery win easily. Throwing in as many obstacles as possible for the virus ensures that it has to attempt every nifty trick in the book before it can claim the jackpot.
The goal of herd immunity is changing, depending on more factors than just the number of people with enough antibodies to avoid significant infection.
Of course, vaccines play a central role in our return to a more intimate, less confined life. It is vital to reach a large number of immune bodies as quickly as possible. But the strategy is not one where we can take our foot off the accelerator as we approach the finish line.
If anything, now is the time to double down, lest the hardships we have endured turn into sacrifices made in vain.
This research was published in Nature.
[ad_2]
Source link