European leaders hope to "avoid disaster" when Trump arrives at NATO

US and Allied authorities have already concluded agreements that will be formally announced at the summit, including:

* Measures to improve security NATO preparation and its capabilities to accelerate the combat of the troops.

* Increased role of NATO in the training and badistance mission in Iraq

* Capacity building in cybersecurity

* Announcement of two new commandments from NATO, one from the United States and one from Germany

But Trump's anger over spending – which officials say does not represent correctly – eclipses these achievements. While some diplomats are worried that Trump may condition US aid at the 2% threshold of spending, others fear that the president will cut a planned increase in funding for a European deterrence program.

Other European concerns include the possibility that Trump will say something related to NATO military exercises, US troops in Europe or the future NATO expansion that could undermine Alliance, according to several officials.

"The best scenario is that it's only rhetoric," said the European official about Trump's comments on the US's willingness to maintain their commitment to the world. ;Europe. "But it's possible that there are consequences, and that's something we're ready to do."

The possibility that Trump could reduce the defense of countries that do not exceed 2% "would really be a threat and it would be probably the worst case right now," the official said.

Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO members over the issue of burden-sharing since the 2016 campaign and intensified his attacks in the weeks leading up to the summit.

"Many NATO countries, which we are supposed to defend, are not only below their current commitment of 2% (which is low), but have also been lagging behind for many years in payments that have not been made to pay back the United States? "Trump tweeted Tuesday en route to Brussels. According to Derek Chollet, a former Defense Department official and senior advisor for security and defense policy at the German Marshall Fund, "Trump misunderstands what NATO is – he still talks about it as his own. 39, it was a club in which the members of the alliance owe dues … they are late. "

" It's all about. " money they spend for their own defense, "said Chollet, adding that" part of the problem is that Trump was not involved and was not interested in the details ".

The European official noted that senior US officials are trying to "control the damage" and rebadure the nervous allies, but in the end "no one knows what Trump will do." 19659002] Indeed, the steady beating of Trump's negative comments begins to overwhelm the badurances of the rest of the US national security establishment, said James M. Goldgeier, a senior visiting scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"Officials like Mattis and the US ambbadador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison have tried to rebadure NATO allies, but I think that rebadures", Goldgeier told the press on Tuesday.

"Europeans are really preparing for the worst," he said.

It is feared that Trump will take the advice of key advisers like Mattis and threatens to eliminate a planned funding increase for the European deterrence initiative, which is expected to grow from 4.8 billion to 6.5 billion $ next year, according to Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Graduate in Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations

"Moderate Dog" Mattis

Sestanovich noted that such an approach would be consistent with Trump's pre-summit tweets and with recent indications of a possible disagreement between the president and his defense secretary, a former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Sestanovich shared a joke around the Pentagon that Trump is tweaking Mattis' nickname "Mad Dog" and is now calling the secretary "Moderate Dog Mattis."

Even though Trump does not make specific threats in Brussels, some experts argue that the onset of discord among the allies could undermine the alliance in a way that benefits Moscow. Trump will meet Putin in Helsinki after the NATO summit and a visit to the United Kingdom. "It is more worrying that the signal that will come out of the summit will be disunity.One of Vladimir Putin's basic strategic objectives is to divide the United States and Europe and that the alliance of NATO is low, "said Chollet.

"If we hold a summit that looks like the G7, where an American president insults the other leaders, refuses to sign an agreement at the end, it will play directly in the hands of Putin," he said, making reference to the screens. Tension between Trump and Allied leaders on trade when they met in Canada last month.

"What he wants to accomplish, is that everyone has doubts about the fact that the United States is with them, the stakes are high enough here," he said. said.

A senior NATO official downplayed concerns about the future of the alliance.

"We have already had disagreements, we have already heard questions on the subject of NATO and whenever NATO has become stronger, because it is in the air. Interest of the United States and Europe ".

A second European official suggested that Trump's rhetoric was intended for domestic political consumption and that, despite this, the administration continues to demonstrate a commitment to NATO.

This official highlighted the two new NATO commands that will be formally approved at the summit. One, on the east coast of the United States, will protect the transatlantic shipping lanes and the other, in Germany, will provide the logistics necessary for the alliance to respond quickly to threats.

James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation between Trump and US senior officials is part of a coordinated effort to simultaneously pressure Europeans. And he said that he believes that Trump does not intend to "blow up" the NATO summit – partly because of national concerns.

Any decision to limit US participation in NATO military exercises could create obstacles for Congress. Carafano said: "There is a huge bipartisan support for NATO and anger against Russia in Congress … he (Trump) is trying to do something like end exercises .. that would give him a "Carafano, who was part of the Trump transition team at the State Department, said that Trump's concerns at the NATO summit and during his meeting with Putin are "overhyped".

"Hope to Avoid Disaster"

But other experts warn that Trump's rhetoric could have a lasting negative impact on US relations with some of its most important allies.

Andrew Holland, the director According to the Energy and Infrastructure Studies program of the American Security Projects, the rhetoric of a US president is very important in foreign policy matters.

"Part of the game theory of an alliance signals … to rivals and partners that you are going to stand up … for your allies," Holland said. The barrage of insults and anger of Trump towards Europe "may have signaled to the opponents, to the Russians, that we would not do it, you must do outright signage."

Chollet, who travels to Brussels for the summit United States and European officials "will hope for the best and try not to provoke it".

Trump blurred the NATO summit last year by failing to reaffirm the commitment of Article 5 to NATO on mutual defense. "There was a lot of worry about what Trump did not say," observed Chollet. "With the approach of this summit, there are many concerns about what Trump will say: most leaders will be very happy if there is not a lot of news coming out of this summit, they feel good on the bottom, they hope to avoid disaster. "