Hollywood braces for the collateral damage of the trade war with China



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CAPE TOWN – This was supposed to be a great year for Hollywood in China. The World Trade Organization's five-year film pact, signed in 2012 by the United States and Beijing, was to be renegotiated, promising that US productions would become more accessible to the world's second largest film market. The industry expected to see an increase in the number of authorized American films, increased access to major viewing windows as the summer, while Chinese film authorities rarely allow foreign films and a share largest box-office revenue.

resembling the long-awaited salary of Hollywood in China could become collateral damage in the trade war provoked by President Trump's tariffs. Not only have negotiations on expanding market access failed, but some in Hollywood are also concerned that their films may be targeted in retaliation for tariffs that the United States has identified. for 250 billion dollars of imports from China. "The timing is inconvenient," says Chris Fenton, director of the US Institute of the United States and former president of the US-Chinese film company DMG Entertainment. "In fact, the macro environment may worsen.This could also lead to the worst of China's return contingencies on past deals."

Although we do not know if the films will end up on the lists of products that the United States or China could tax new tariffs, the exports of American films are clear. Hollywood could be a victim if China chooses "qualitative retaliation," said Kenneth Jarrett, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. This could include a deterioration of the revenue sharing conditions for movie offers. Or the Chinese regulatory authority of the film industry, recently transferred to a group within the Communist Party, could simply approve of fewer US films to import or limit their draws to low season periods

. The US Trade Representative's office said Beijing has agreed to discuss "policies and practices that could prevent the US film industry from accessing the Chinese market." This month, however, China said it was "forced to respond" to Trump tariffs. do not set targets. The office of the US Trade Representative declined to comment on the current state of the talks. "We hope the two governments can continue to work together," said Chris Ortman, a spokesperson for the Motion Picture Association of America Inc.

Films could be particularly vulnerable to China's commercial actions. very few US imports that significantly exceed exports. US companies "are worried about regulatory retaliation, if approvals are going to be suspended, or you could see a slowdown in Hollywood film imports," says Jarrett.

The share of American films on the $ 8 billion Chinese market is on track to decline for a third year, a data badysis of box office Mojo shows. In recent years, American studios have lost ground against local films such as Wolf Warrior 2, a nationalist action film that became China 's most successful film last year. And American titles are increasingly being rewarded with Bollywood imports, like Secret Superstar, a big hit on the continent for a fraction of the budget of a Star Wars movie or Avengers. "Hollywood blockbusters have seen better days in China," says Chen Qin, who studies the Chinese film market at the School of Economics at Fudan University. "Even though China is increasing Hollywood access to the market, these movies will still not sell well."

Partly thanks to the rapid growth of the audience in small Chinese cities, where customers are less exposed to Western culture. It's likely that we choose movies with Chinese themes, Chen says. Many viewers across China also do not know the characters and intrigues of the older American film franchises, so they do not get much from the last episode – a reason why Star Wars movies are getting worse. relatively bad shots

is crucial for the six largest Hollywood studios, who have come to rely more on the superhero and franchise action movies. China's business turnover grew about 20% in 2017, compared to 2% in the United States and Canada, according to data from the MPAA. The US and Canadian industry has managed to increase its revenue by 2% from 2013 to 2017, but only by increasing ticket prices.

Chinese state film distributors generally pay American studios only 25% of the revenue generated by their films. in China. That's half the rate that studios get in the United States. Distributors also control release dates and marketing. Yet, the Chinese public sometimes helps Hollywood studios to compensate for the poor domestic performance of their films. Uprising, the latest installment of Legendary Entertainment's Pacific Rim film franchise, has raised about $ 100 million in China and only $ 59 million at home, according to Mojo Box Office. A new Tomb Raider movie in March reported nearly $ 79 million to China and 57 million to the United States

Even though market share is shrinking, the total business figure of US studios will increase because that the public is growing so fast. And a stronger Chinese film industry could even be good for Hollywood if it made the authorities less concerned about keeping the competition overseas, badysts said.

At the same time, the boom in room-building in small towns results for the local nationalist rate on Hollywood blockbusters. For example, following the success of Wolf Warrior 2 in 2017, another Chinese military action film, Operation Red Sea, is leading box office sales this year

] in the first half of this year, Mojo Box Office data badysis on the 50 largest movies of the period shows. This is down from 48% in 2016. The decreasing attractiveness of US blockbusters is seen even more clearly in projection audience figures. Based on calculations using Maoyan Movie's data on the first 10 films of the first half, Hollywood films averaged 16 seats per projection, compared with 28 for Chinese productions. (The Chinese government tracks box office sales but does not report the national origin of movies.)

In China, unlike the United States, Indian films become powerful rivals. The secret superstar of Bollywood collected 747 million yuan ($ 111 million) earlier this year, beating the American blockbuster Black Panther and Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Last year, the Indian film Dangal reported $ 193 million in China, more than the Walt Disney wins on Coco and Pirates of the Caribbean: the men die and the Hollywoodians faint. studios may have to calibrate their requests for an end to the annual quota. "Hollywood has to be careful," says industry director, Fenton. "More films on the Chinese market can dilute each other's performances, which means more movies than profits, so American studios might be better off pushing for a higher percentage of ticket sales." currently 25% by popular demand. "

-BLOOMBERG

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