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Africa is far from managing to reduce new HIV infections
children and youth and is unlikely to reduce new infections among young people
substantially before 2030 due to an anticipated doubling of the teenager
population, according to the results of a UNICEF modeling exercise presented
Thursday at the 22nd International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2018) in Amsterdam
The study examined what will happen as a population of
children and adolescents are growing in sub-Saharan Africa in the coming decades.
As populations age in other parts of the world, especially in Europe and Asia,
Africa will experience a "swelling of youth".
The population of adolescents and young people aged 15 to 24
living in sub-Saharan Africa will almost double by 2050 while it will diminish
or remain stable in all other regions of the world. HIV incidence among young people
women remain high and it is estimated that the incidence has only decreased by 3%
year among young people since 2010. As the youth population grows,
the total number of young people living with HIV will also increase unless
a larger and more sustained reduction in the incidence of HIV among young people.
Examine the impact of this demographic transition on HIV
among youth, UNICEF took data on UNAIDS HIV estimates, the UN population
projections and other validated sources to develop projections of HIV incidence
and prevalence up to 2050 for 141 countries, including 46 countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
The findings were presented by Aleya Khalifa, UNICEF.
The model compared the results of two trends:
the incidence of HIV and antiretroviral coverage, and what could happen if
Fast Track goals to reduce the incidence of HIV and treatment coverage by 2020 (81%
coverage) and 2030 (90% coverage) are achieved. The model also compared trends
in the coverage of PMTCT, on the basis of the current trend or completion of the accelerated procedure
targets by 2020 (75% coverage) and 2030 (95% coverage).
The study found that while current trends prevail,
the number of new infections in children under five will decrease by half
By 2030, at about 140,000 a year, new infections among adolescents
(15-19 years) will not be halved until 2050 and will continue to run to a
rate of about 200,000 a year in 2030.
But the study also revealed that countries are far from
achieve the 2020 targets, not to mention the 2030 targets, implying that the "current trend" scenario is very likely to
to prevent the appearance of new infections in children.
According to current trends, new infections in children
down only 42% by 2020, rather than the 95% target set by
The model shows that 1.9 million children and adolescents
will live with HIV by the year 2030, falling to 1 million by 2050.
Likewise, new infections among teenagers aged 15 to 19
will drop by only 28%, while infections among boys will only decrease by 25%, far
below the 75% reduction envisaged in the framework of the Three Frees
The generation without AIDS .
Aleya Khalifa stated that these projections "should really serve as
a warning. "
The study also found that the impact of the realization of Fast Track
treatment coverage goals would be most pronounced for new infections
teens. While on the current trend, new infections among teenagers
girls would drop 42% by 2030, new infections would fall by 83% by 2030 if
90% of treatment coverage could be achieved. A similar reduction in new infections
could be reached among adolescent boys.
Although the study found that, overall, new HIV infections
will fall by 70% in East and Southern Africa by 2050, no country in sub-Saharan Africa
Africa can expect to reduce by 95% new infections among adolescents and young people
from here to 2030. Based on current trends and levels of prevention activities,
UNICEF estimates that nearly 10 million teenagers and young people will be
infected with HIV between 2017 and 2050. Two thirds of these infections
in young women.
The study estimates that only Botswana, Mozambique,
Swaziland, Uganda and Zimbabwe will be able to reduce by 95% their
Infections among adolescents and young people by 2050. The share of new
infections in West and Central Africa will increase, partly because of
a particularly rapid increase in the infant population in the region, but also
because of slow progress towards the 2020 goals.
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