[ad_1]
<div _ngcontent-c16 = "" innerhtml = "
VIENNA, AUSTRIA – JUNE 20: Participants pose for a family photo at the 7th International Seminar of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ) in Vienna on June 20, 2018. (Photo by Askin Kiyagan / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images)
Oil prices are $ 75-80 and some are talking about Iranian sanctions adding $ 50 to it, while the price of oil is $ 75- $ 80. others suggest $ 150 is possible in the coming years – production in the United States, expectations of more Russian and Saudi oil, and repeated warnings that a trade war would dampen economic growth and demand. 19659003] In some ways it is the perfect storm, with production problems in Libya and Venezuela.In this context, the situation looks like that of 2003/4, where the problems of Iraq and Venezuela combined with strong economic growth pushes prices up to the level of 2003/4. levels of numbers. As a result of the collapse of oil prices in 1998, upstream investments were constrained, soaring prices seemed irresistible
To a certain extent, fears that an increase in Saudi output means less capacity available for emergency situations. Better to make the oil now, then leave it in the soil. But what matters is whether Saudi oil improves the market equilibrium (and enters the inventory) or replaces the lost supply, especially from Iran. In the latter case, which seems likely at the present time, the market is becoming more vulnerable to other problems of supply. If the Iranians succeed in maintaining their exports, the Saudis will reduce the pressure on the market.
Whereas energy security for years has focused on the potential for large-scale supply disruptions (eg war in the Persian / Arabian Gulf), the fact that the supply losses are individually small but overall significant is surprising. The problems in Libya, Syria and Yemen may be vaguely related (due to the Arab Spring uprising), but the others are completely unrelated. Declines in production in Nigeria and Venezuela are due to internal political conflicts, and the eventual loss of Iranian supply is the result of a dispute with the US government. The production of South Sudan was closed by the civil war
. The "Trade Act of Interconnected Monkeys" is also at stake (described in Aaron Elkin's series on Gideon Oliver, the Skeleton Detective). All supply problems are not unrelated to market developments, especially when unionized workers are involved. The leverage of workers is greatest when markets are tight. It is therefore not surprising that Gabon and Norway are considering trade union actions. The amounts involved are relatively minor, adding insult to injury, but the impact is magnified by market conditions.
For those trying to predict the future price trajectory, this combination is particularly aggravating. It is much easier to predict OPEC decisions than political developments in Iran, Libya and Venezuela that are not interlinked with each other or the oil market, but which also have different temporal effects. It will take months to find out whether Iranian sales are being maintained or not, Libyan production could recover very quickly (or be significantly delayed) and Venezuela could, with foreign aid, stabilize its supply.
of these occur simultaneously, and a similar coincidence could see the most resolved over the next few months, but that would be quite coincidental. As long as the global economy remains strong and production capabilities are low, expect all negative news, such as the formation of an Atlantic hurricane, to increase prices. Relief before the fall does not seem to be in the cards. [>
VIENNA, AUSTRIA – JUNE 20: Participants pose for a family photo at the 7th International Seminar of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria on June 20, 2018. (Photo : Askin Kiyagan / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images)
