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The wounded are being treated after an explosion at a Zanu PF rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, on June 23. (AP)
Zimbabweans go to the polls on July 30, during the first presidential election since the ouster of President Robert Mugabe last year. Until a week ago, the presidential campaign in Zimbabwe had been relatively peaceful, with the exception of some violence reported during the party's primary elections
which abruptly changed on June 23, when Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zimbabwe's new president, survived an explosion. political rally in Bulawayo, the second largest city in the country. The President's Office announced on June 26 that two people had died as a result of injuries sustained during the attack, while 49 others had remained at the hospital.
It was the first time that Zimbabwe saw a direct attack on the incumbent president. In the past, election-related violence has been largely sponsored by the state. Examples include the Ghukurahundi mbadacres in 1983 that killed more than 20,000 people; the Murambatsvina operation of 2005 that displaced more than 700,000 people; and the post-election violence of 2008 that forced opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai to withdraw from the presidential race.
Who is behind the Bulawayo explosion?
Two people were arrested as part of the attack. The main opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by Nelson Chamisa, has not been linked to the blast.
In an interview with the national broadcaster, Mnangagwa rejected the idea that the attack could have It was designed by residents of Bulawayo, the epicenter of the Ghukurahundi mbadacres in 1983. Some in Zimbabwe continue to hold Mnangagwa, who was then Minister of State, personally responsible for the atrocities.
Mnangagwa blamed Saturday's attack on what he calls his "usual enemies" – referring to unknown badailants having made at least six attempts in his life before becoming president. After a cyanide attack last October at a rally of ZANU PF, Mnangagwa had to be transported to South Africa for treatment
The ruling party, ZANU PF, remains deeply divided and political is now more militarized. Mnangagwa has appointed senior government officials to the army generals who announced the coup of 2017 that led to the ouster of Mugabe.
Statements from the ZANU-PF Youth League, War Veterans and Vice President Constantino Chiwenga all indicate that internal ZANU PF conflicts are the cause of the explosion. Mnangagwa told the BBC that he suspected ZANU PF's G-40 faction, made up of supporters of Grace Mugabe, Robert Mugabe's wife.
The Mnangagwa G-40 comments follow a recent pattern in which ZANU PF elites accuse disloyalty and sabotage. For example, in 2014, Mugabe fired Vice President Joice Mujuru and eight cabinet ministers on allegations of factionalism and a plot to kill him. Mnangagwa later replaced Mujuru as vice president.
Over the last two years, tensions between the two main factions within ZANU-PF have increased: the pro-Grace Mugabe faction G-40 and the pro-Mnangagwa Lacoste group. In October 2017, Grace Mugabe publicly pushed for the removal of Mnangagwa
When Mnangagwa was fired, nine of the 10 provinces of ZANU PF supported Mugabe and his wife. But Mnangagwa's dismissal has alienated veterans and military elites. In response, the military placed Robert Mugabe and his family under house arrest, neutralized the pro-Mugabe security sector and pushed for civilian arrests of G-40 members, many of whom remain in exile.
After the November transition, when Mnangagwa became president, pro-Mugabe security sector officials Zimbabwe Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri and Happyson Bonyongwe, head of the Central Intelligence Organization ( CIO), have been expelled since
What do citizens think?
While state media remained silent about potential suspects, Zimbabweans turned to social media for possible explanations. Zimbabweans are very active users of social media: more than 90 percent of Zimbabweans have their own mobile phone and about 5 million of the roughly 13 million Zimbabweans are active users of various social media platforms.
] peddled by media mogul Trevor Ncube and former minister of self-exiled information Jonathan Moyo highlights friction between Mnangagwa and his vice president. The vice president facilitated the military intervention that led to Robert Mugabe's forced resignation in November
Chiwenga's supporters rejected this argument, citing the long-standing friendship between Chiwenga and Mnangagwa. In addition, the wife of Chiwenga was one of the injured people during the attack.
New tensions in the run-up to the July elections
What happened last Saturday brought new tensions in a relatively peaceful campaign . Chamisa, leader of the opposition and successor to the late Morgan Tsvangirai, was able to campaign freely throughout the country, including in rural areas that were previously an area of prohibition for the opposition. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has yielded to some demands for reform of the opposition, including the publication of an electronic copy of the register of voters. A few days after the attack, the electoral actors signed a peace pledge. The president said the elections would be held as planned on July 30.
In a recent Afrobarometer survey (conducted before the Bulawayo explosion), 84% of Zimbabweans reported being registered to vote and declared their determination to democratically elect their leaders. . Nearly all – 97% – would like the government to guarantee elections without violence. Analysts are waiting for the elections to take place.
Chipo Dendere is a consortium for a faculty member of diversity faculty and badistant professor of political science at Amherst College. Dendere studies the relationship between migration and democratization; social media, factors that influence political transitions; and vote for choice, identity, public opinion and political behavior. Follow her on Twitter at @drDendere or www.drdendere.com
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