After the moon, people on Mars by 2033 … or 2060

On December 11, 2017, US President Donald Trump signed a directive directing NASA to prepare for the return of astronauts to the moon "followed by human missions on Mars and other destinations."

The dates set by the space agency are 2024 for the Moon and Mars in 2033, but according to industry experts and insiders, reaching the Red Planet by then is highly unlikely without a herculean effort from the The size of the Apollo program of the 1960s.

"The Moon is the testing ground for our eventual Mars mission," said Jim Bridenstine, NASA's director, at a conference this week.

"The Moon is our way to get to Mars in the fastest and safest way possible, which is why we go to the moon."

According to Robert Howard, who is responsible for the future space habitats development lab at the legendary Johnson Space Center in Houston, the hurdles are not so much technical or scientific as a matter of budget and political will.

"A lot of people want us to have an Apollo moment, and a president, like Kennedy, gets up and says, we have to do it and the whole country gets together," he said.

"If that happens, I would actually say 2027. But I do not think it's going to happen, I think in our current approach, we'll be lucky to do it before 2037".

But Howard said that if he was pessimistic and assumed politics was getting darker, "it could be the 2060s".

Psychological challenges

From the design, manufacture and testing of rockets and spacecraft to learning the best way to grow lettuce: all the basic work remains to be done.

To get there, it will take at least six months, instead of three days on the moon.

The entire mission could take two years, since Mars and Earth are close to each other every 26 months, a window to take.

Julie Robinson, NASA's chief scientist for the International Space Station, said the main tasks were to find a way to protect astronauts from prolonged exposure to solar and cosmic rays.

"A second is our food system," she added. Current ideas about installation systems "are not packable, portable or small enough to be transported to Mars".

And then there is the issue of medical emergencies: astronauts will have to be able to heal themselves in case of an accident.

"In fact, I think combinations are a big problem," said Jennifer Heldman, NASA's global scientist.

One of the main criticisms of the Apollo astronauts was their gloves, which were too swollen and prevented them from doing a skilful job.

NASA is developing a new suit called xEMU, the first in forty years, but it will not be ready for its first release on the International Space Station for a few years.

On Mars, the dust will be even more problematic than on the Moon. The Apollo astronauts returned with huge amounts of lunar dust in their modules. Keeping it out of the habitats will be essential for a mission that involves spending months on the red planet.

The mining techniques of Martian resources to extract the water, oxygen and fuel necessary for human life do not exist yet – and must be tested on the Moon of Africa. 39, here the end of the decade.

Finally, there is the most fundamental question: how will a group of people cope with the psychological stress of being totally isolated for two years?

It will not be possible to communicate in real time with Houston Mission Control: radio communications will take between 4 and 24 minutes between planets, in one direction. NASA plans to test delayed communication drills aboard the ISS in the coming years.

Artificial intelligence also needs to be developed to assist and guide astronauts.

A researcher commissioned by NASA to study the probability of arriving on Mars by 2033 has concluded that the goal was "impracticable".

"It's not just a budget," said Bhavya Lal, of the Science and Technology Policy Institute. "It's also an organizational bandwidth.How much can NASA do at the same time?"

For Lal, the most realistic schedule was 2039.

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© 2019 AFP