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Alabama is still firmly in the middle of the delta wave – the steepest coronavirus wave ever seen here. And the virus is wreaking havoc in hospitals across the state.
“All I can say is this is not going in the right direction at all,” said Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association. “If you look at the curve and compare the curve of that point with the curve of [previous spikes], it’s frankly much more frightening.
“We are going up faster and we don’t have days where we see the number of cases go down.”
The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Alabama surpassed 1,900 on Friday, according to data from the Alabama Department of Public Health. This is the highest number since January 29. Just over a month ago, fewer than 200 people were being treated for the virus in public hospitals.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
Williamson said the current trend reflects a very high level of disease in the community. The number of patients currently hospitalized with the virus has increased daily since July 11. In previous outbreaks, there have been days when hospitalizations have declined, even during the worst days of the pandemic.
“That says a lot about the doubling time,” said Williamson. “If it’s going straight up, it takes less time to double your case count than if you have your ups and downs. “
Williamson said he believes at the current rate we will soon be breaking the hospitalization records set earlier this year.
“I think our peak of 3,000 [patients], we’ll probably get past that, ”he said. “With the current shape of the curve, we will be passing it in August.”
Williamson isn’t the only one worried about how quickly hospitalizations have increased. Alabama state health official Scott Harris raised the issue at a press conference on Friday.
“We’ve had a significant jump in hospitalizations,” Harris said. “We’re very worried about this… I don’t know why this would slow down.”
Harris gave some details on the state’s current hospitalization data. He didn’t have specific numbers, but said the vast majority of people currently hospitalized with COVID – likely over 95% – are not vaccinated. He also said that 37 of the nearly 1,850 hospitalized patients with COVID yesterday were pediatric patients.
“Vaccines are extremely effective in preventing hospitalizations,” he said.
He also revealed that so far there have been 6,400 breakthrough infections in Alabama – people who have tested positive after being fully immunized. That’s about 0.4% of all cases – “a very, very small number,” Harris said. He said there had been 26 deaths among those vaccinated – or 0.002% of COVID deaths in Alabma.
According to Harris, only 7% of the state’s intensive care beds are currently available, and nearly every hospital in the state is facing staffing issues.
“I have had the pleasure of speaking with all hospitals in the state over the past 72 hours,” said Williamson. “Without a doubt, the problem for every hospital in the state is staffing. “
He said there were fewer people currently working in hospitals than at the start of this year, as many hospitals are starting to see workers – vaccinated and unvaccinated – contracting COVID-19. Some hospitals have already started limiting elective procedures, he said. Others are “in active discussions” on this subject.
Williamson said he was concerned about the future.
“What’s even more of a challenge is what happens after? What is 4,000 [patients] look like? What does 5,000 look like? “
Cases, positivity rate, deaths are all on the rise – as are vaccines
Every major indicator used to track the coronavirus pandemic has increased in Alabama this week.
The state’s 7-day average for new cases exceeded 3,000 for the first time since mid-January, at the end of the state’s huge winter wave.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
The state’s current average for cases stands at 3,304 new cases per day, but that’s slightly inflated due to a backlog of data at the end of last week. Even without the backlog, the average would be close to 3,000, and the state has added at least 3,000 new cases in each of the past four days.
But there are other figures that are even more worrying for experts.
“The other thing that really makes me fearful for the future is our positivity rate,” Williamson said. “We were down to less than four percent, and we’re now down to 24.1%, and I can tell you there are parts of the state where that positivity rate is already in the 1930s.”
Data from the US Department of Health and Human Services shows that Alabama’s positivity rate on PCR tests was 23.3% on August 1, the highest on record. The ADPH uses slightly different numbers, but the trend is the same – 24.1% of tests came back positive on Friday.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
Alabama’s positivity rate on PCR tests measured by the HHS was the second highest in the country, behind Oklahoma.
Alabama was still the last in the country in terms of the percentage of the total population fully vaccinated on Friday, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – although the state has made some progress on the first doses in recent weeks.
[Can’t see the map? Click here.]
In Alabama, the positivity rate remains highest in the southern part of the state. As of Friday, Crenshaw County, just south of Montgomery, had the highest positivity rate in the state, at nearly 45%. Two other counties in southern Alabama – Henry and Dale – were also above 40%.
No county has added more cases recently than Mobile, where more than 4,200 cases have been confirmed this week. Mobile is also experiencing one of the worst hospitalization situations. In the week to August 3, hospitals in Mobile County admitted 348 new COVID patients, the second largest in the state, according to CDC data.
Only Jefferson County – which is more populous and has hospitals serving patients in many surrounding counties – has seen more.
[Can’t see the map? Click here.]
Alabama is also starting to see an increase in virus deaths – although those numbers are nowhere near the levels seen here in winter.
At his press conference on Friday, Harris noted that the state had reported double-digit deaths in each of the past three days. The 7-day average for new reported deaths rose to 12 per day, the highest in several months.
[Can’t see the chart? Click here.]
Harris said the number of cases is increasing, then about two weeks later you would expect the number of hospitals to increase, and then about two weeks later the deaths. But the trend may not be quite the same this time around.
“Nationally, it’s not clear that deaths will increase in the same way,” he said. This is because people who get sick tend to be younger, as much of the older population, even in Alabama, is much more likely to be vaccinated.
You can see the current 7-day average for cases, positivity rate, and new hospital admissions for each county in Alabama in the table below, along with the total vaccination rate.
[Can’t see the table? Click here.]
Do you have an idea for an Alabama data story? Email Ramsey Archibald at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more stories about Alabama data here.
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