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Well, see, was it that hard?
Three days ago, he warned that he would not advise vaccinated people to go out to eat or go to the movies, not because it is dangerous for them but because it is potentially dangerous for the majority of people. the population that has not yet been vaccinated and with whom they would mix in these public spaces. Vaccinated people * could * still spread the virus, even if they spread it less than an unvaccinated person.
Surely, however, in the name of giving people who have done their duty in getting respite from the misery of pandemic isolation, we could encourage those who have been vaccinated to reunite with others who have been vaccinated. Well, yes, be careful with strangers as they could still be vulnerable to infection, but if you know for a fact that everyone involved in an upcoming social engagement has been vaccinated, why the hell should that engagement not continue? ?
Last night, in an interview with CNN, Fauci agreed. Why not? “Even if it’s not backed up by data,” he said of vaccinated people socializing safely, “it’s backed up by common sense.” Which is true, and also (finally!) The right message to give Americans who are on the fence to get their shots a behavioral incentive to take the plunge. Want to have a short-term dinner with eight to ten close friends? No problem. You all know what to do.
Pop in here at 5:30 p.m. of the clip and watch:
Dr Anthony Fauci urges all Americans to get vaccinated as soon as it is their turn, promising that there will be “benefits both socially and personally, and from a public health perspective.” https://t.co/4hzSawki9u pic.twitter.com/FAmROWkwPm
– CNN (@CNN) February 26, 2021
The key bit via the Daily Wire:
“I am vaccinated, my wife vaccinated, my daughters vaccinated,” he continued. “Before the vaccination, if they wanted to come and visit you, they had to quarantine themselves for a while, get tested, wear a mask. What we’re saying right now, while not backed up by data, is backed up by common sense that if you have two people vaccinated and they want to get together, let it be of family or friends you know who are vaccinated, you can start getting vaccinated individually, even if the risk is not zero. The risk becomes extremely low when you have both parties vaccinated. So we’re going to start to see people say, ‘Hey, the more people get vaccinated, I can have dinner with a family member coming in.’ “
It sounds eerily like what Fauci said, “Whatever the CDC ends up formally recommending, we know the vaccinated people are going to come together and we know it’s safe.” So that’s your unofficial advice. For once, the experts aren’t under-selling the vaccine.
Coincidentally, he said this within about 12 hours of new data being released by the University of Cambridge showing that even one dose of Pfizer vaccine significantly reduces the risk of transmission. We have already had evidence from Israel that a single dose significantly reduces the risk of symptomatic illness, but Cambridge data suggests that it also reduces the risk of infection, even asymptomatic:
Results from Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge show 75% protection against Covid-19.
The results also indicate a four-fold decrease in the risk of asymptomatic Covid infection among healthcare workers vaccinated for more than 12 days – suggesting that the first dose will significantly reduce the spread of the virus …
Dr Mike Weekes, an infectious disease specialist in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Medicine, who co-led the study, hailed the results as “excellent news”.
He said, “The Pfizer vaccine not only provides protection against SARS-CoV-2 disease, but also helps prevent infection, thus reducing the risk of transmitting the virus to others. “
This is what Fauci means by common sense in allowing vaccinated people to socialize with each other. While everyone is primarily protected not only against disease, but also against infection, the mental well-being benefits of letting them regain some degree of normality clearly outweighs the risk of transmission that might result from the encounter. .
It’s worth watching the full interview if you have time, as it is keen to stress that people shouldn’t wait for Cadillac vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) if the only one available locally is a Lincoln (Johnson & Johnson). . Pfizer and Moderna appear to be a bit more effective than J&J, but in the end, nothing is more effective at preventing infections than herd immunity. The faster we get there, the more lives are saved, which means that getting * some * vaccines to as many people as possible as quickly as possible is the optimal strategy to limit each individual’s risk, even if all of these. vaccines are not equally potent. A public health researcher built a computer model to test this theory, in fact, and walked away confident:
Let’s take an example: let’s say the United States has been able to vaccinate a million people a day completely, with a vaccine at 90% effectiveness (which has happened so far) and up to that 60% of the population is fully vaccinated. At this rate, it would take about six and a half months.
For comparison, consider a scenario where people are fully vaccinated at a faster rate of 1.5 million per day with a vaccine that is about 70% less effective until 60% of the population is fully vaccinated. At this faster rate, it would take about four months.
We found that this faster scenario with the less effective vaccine could end up preventing on average more than 1.38 million additional cases, more than 51,000 more hospitalizations and more than 6,000 more deaths than the more vaccination scenario. slow and more efficient. This highlights the importance of getting as many people as possible vaccinated as soon as possible to slow the spread of the virus.
Anyone who wants a Cadillac because they think a Lincoln isn’t quite in the same league is putting themselves at unnecessary risk and those around them. The best protection we all have, including against the creepy variants that have yet to be developed, is to shut down all transmission vectors as quickly as possible and deny the virus additional opportunities to mutate. Every new vaccine that comes on the market makes this easier. Coincidentally, the FDA’s external expert advisory group is meeting this afternoon to hopefully give J&J a final push ahead of the agency’s approval this weekend.
By the way, notice what Fauci said at one point about Johnson & Johnson’s single dose vaccine. This * may * eventually turn into a double dosage, especially if a new variant is launched, as one of the strategies for dealing with a dangerous new strain is to simply “bombard” it with antibodies. Stay tuned.
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