America's incoherent moon strategy weakens its leadership in space



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Since President Trump signed the Space Policy Directive 1, officially ordering NASA to send humans back to the moon in December 2017, he issued conflicting messages about the value of the moon compared to the fact that Go straight to Mars. (credit: NASA / Aubrey Gemignani)




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On December 11, 2017, the Trump Administration issued Space Policy Directive 1, in which it was ordered NASA to return to the moon. Since then, the United States has not been better off than the 10th of December 2017 for the Moon. Vice President Mike Pence said in his speech of March 26, 2019 at the fifth meeting of the National Council of Space in Huntsville, Alabama:

In the directive-1 on space policy, the president asked NASA to create a lunar exploration plan. But to date, more than 15 months later, we still have no plan in place. But the administrator Bridenstine told me, five minutes ago [emphasis added], we now have a plan to return to the moon … The truth is that despite the dedication of the men and women who design, build and test the SLS [Space Launch System], you all know that the program is in the grip of bureaucratic inertia, what some call the "paralysis of analysis".

The Trump administration has not proposed a coherent strategy for space on the moon, despite claims to the contrary.

In contrast, the Lunar Exploration Program of China (CLEP) impressed the world with a "human first" lunar landing on January 3, 2019. What is even more interesting and little discussed, is that Chang-e-4 accomplished another first for humanity: demonstration of a cotton seed springing at 384,400 kilometers from Earth, as part of a program Larger Chinese settlement on the lunar surface. While many Western analysts have called these achievements of little value (see "Red Moon revisited", The Space Review, March 11, 2019), or the Moon has no strategic value or doubtful, the main countries of the Asia-Pacific region clearly think otherwise. Chang'e-4 has a radar that enters the lunar surface, right now, in search of resources.

At the same time, the Indian lunar mission Chandrayaan 2 has arrived on the moon and, although its landing gear seems to have failed (see "Schrödinger Landing", The Space Review, September 9, 2019), the orbiter works well. According to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Chandrayaan 2 will map the lunar surface and resource prospects. Japan, another Asian space specialist, has signed a memorandum of understanding with India on cooperation in the space field. As part of this cooperation, Japan will partner with the Chandrayaan 3 lunar mission in India to explore for resources and return lunar samples. At the same time, China has announced several lunar monitoring missions, including returns of samples and lunar colonies. China is so proud of its lunar success that Ye Peijan, the "father of Chinese lunar probes" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) – the same character who claimed that "the universe is an ocean, the moon, Diaoyu Islands, Mars is Huangyan Island. If we do not go now, even if we are able to do it, our descendants will accuse us of doing so "- we receive the highest state honor of China.

China 's space growth has been recognized by Pence in his Speech from the National Council of Space in March:

Make no mistake: we are in a race for space as in the 60s and the stakes are even greater. Last December, China became the first nation to land on the other side of the moon and revealed its ambition to seize the strategic heights of the moon and become the world's most eminent country in the world. l & # 39; space.

In that same speech, Pence said, "And as President Trump said, in his words:" The fate of America is to be … the leader among the nations of our [own] adventure in the great unknown. However, despite all these claims, the Trump administration has not proposed a coherent space strategy for the moon, even if it claims otherwise. NASA's Artemis Moon Project Expected to Land US Astronauts on the South Lunar Pole by 2024, Must Face National Opposition Regarding Which State (Texas or Alabama) Should Get Billion Dollar Project to build the landing gear that will take them to the moon. At the same time, others, like Newt Gingrich, believe that the construction of this lander should be the subject of a contract, not with NASA, but with the winning private space company, on the basis of a $ 2 billion space contest. Elon Musk from SpaceX welcomed this proposal. In the meantime, Jeff Bezos said in a May public address that his company, Blue Origin, was building a lander, Blue Moon, which should be ready by 2023, in time to meet the 2024 deadline. set by the Trump administration, send a man and a woman to the moon.

China has not only voiced great ambitions for the exploitation of the moon and asteroids propelled by a coherent space strategy, but has also demonstrated its ability to maintain its presence on the moon.

Trump's commitment to this lunar landing has wavered and has been off center since then. On June 7, 2019, Trump sabotaged his own 2017 Space Policy Directive for NASA 1 to return to the moon, when he tweeted that the moon should not be at the center of the US space strategy, thus creating a political confusion. Instead, Trump urged NASA to focus on what it had already done, ahead of its own space policy directive 1: focus on arriving on Mars. On June 10, 2019, NASA's director Jim Bridenstine held a public meeting to explain NASA's "Moon to Mars" program, which essentially consists of defending Trump's tweet. On July 19, during the 50th anniversary celebrations of the historic landing of Apollo 11 at the White House, Trump asked Bridenstine: "To get to Mars, you have to land on the moon, they say … N & # Any way to go directly without landing on the moon? Is this a possibility? "This statement contradicts Trump's earlier directive in 2017:

This is a first step in the return of American astronauts to the moon for the first time since 1972, long-term exploration and use. [emphasis added] This time we will not only plant our flag and leave our footprints – we will lay the groundwork for a possible mission to Mars and maybe someday in many worlds beyond.

Trump also did not offer a convincing speech about the American space power (like John F. Kennedy's speech on Moon in 1962) that is powerful and inspiring. This inability to lead leadership in space has led to a loss of prestige and influence in the United States, and countries are seeking leadership elsewhere.

China has not only voiced great ambitions for the exploitation of the moon and asteroids propelled by a coherent space strategy, but has also demonstrated its ability to maintain its presence on the moon. To reinforce these lunar ambitions, China is proposing large-scale technologies such as space-based solar energy (SBSP), which would maintain a planned base for the Moon. To support these ambitions in terms of space resources, Xi created the People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) in 2015 to develop doctrines and combat capabilities for space power projection. The rank of PLASSF is equivalent to that of the PLA's army, navy, air force, and rocket forces, and is guided by Xi's spatial dream. The deputy commander of PLASSF, Lieutenant-General Shang Hong, is one of the most innovative leaders. He is known for his futuristic reflections on the meaning of space for power projection capabilities.

In contrast, the Trump administration undermined its own directive by issuing contradictory statements and contradictory presidential interventions. As a result, the power and leadership of the United States to influence the shape of the future space order has been weakened. Already, this lack of US strategic coherence has led to the loss of US power in the Asia-Pacific region, with China quickly catching up, as indicated by the 2019 Asia Power Index published by the Lowy Institute in Australia. However, this course can be reversed, with some skillful strategic interventions. That's it now.


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