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A massive current system flowing through the vast Atlantic Ocean affects temperatures, climate, sea levels, and weather systems around the world. Any disruption in its flow could have rapid and catastrophic effects on the global climate. And a new study has dismal predictions about the future of the Atlantic meridian reversal circulation, as is known, and whether it could cease altogether in the decades to come.
This comes from a new study published Thursday in the journal Nature Geoscience, which reconstructs the history of the current flowing since about 400 AD. Researchers say circulation is now at its lowest than it has ever been in this period.
But figuring out what that means – and if the traffic will stop – takes a bit of context on how it all works.
The southern Atlantic overturning circulation – or “AMOC” for short – can be thought of as a series of conveyor belts. The directions of the belts and their “content” vary: a belt, containing hot water, flows north, cools and evaporates, increasing the salt content in this region of the ocean. As the water gets colder and heavier, it sinks and flows south, creating a second belt moving south. These belts are connected by regions of the Labrador Sea, the Nordic Sea and the Southern Ocean. They are responsible for bringing mild, warm weather to Europe and keeping sea levels low on the east coast of the United States.
According to the authors of the Nature Geoscience study, AMOC is weakening. The culprit is probably the global climate crisis. As the arctic ice and the Greenland ice sheet melt, as rain and snow levels increase, the water flowing north becomes less salty and less dense. This, in turn, slows down the extent to which it returns south and weakens AMOC as a whole.
The authors of the article estimate that AMOC could be weakened by about 34% to 45% by the end of this century. If that happened, one might expect massive winter storms, heat waves and droughts in Europe. In the United States, sea levels could rise to dangerous levels, threatening major coastal cities like New York, Boston, and Miami and creating millions of climate refugees.
Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, co-author of the study, told the Guardian that “we risk triggering [a tipping point] in this century, and traffic would slow down over the next century. It’s extremely unlikely that we’ve triggered it yet, but if we don’t stop global warming, it’s increasingly likely that we will. “
These are not the only significant and apocalyptic consequences that will result if climate change is not brought under control. There will be more wildfires in the west coast states and more extreme weather events like massive hurricanes, thunderstorms and winter storms. Large parts of the planet will be too hot and dry to inhabit, and it will be more difficult to produce enough food to support the human population. As people are forced to live closer to each other, conflicts are likely to intensify, especially as resource shortages increase.
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