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The prolonged trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as the slowing economies and the growth in oil demand have pushed analysts to reduce their WTI crude oil price forecasts this year to their lowest point since January 2018, revealed the Reuters monthly survey.
According to 51 analysts and economists polled by Reuters, WTI crude will average $ 57.90 per barrel this year, up from $ 59.29 a barrel in last month's study. WTI crude prices averaged $ 57.13 this year and are trading down 1.36% to $ 55.94 at 8:17 am EDT Friday.
Analysts have also lowered their expectations for the average Brent crude oil price this year, reaching the lowest average forecast for 2019 since March 2018. Experts now estimate Brent crude to average $ 65.02 per barrel this year. year, down from $ 67.47 in last month's survey. So far this year, Brent crude has averaged $ 65.08 a barrel, while the international benchmark was down 0.6% to $ 60.13 early Friday. of day.
Analysts cited the trade war between the United States and China and the slowdown in world economic growth as the main reasons for the significant drop in oil price forecasts this month. Tensions in the Middle East, monetary policies to support economies, US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and slower growth of oil shale could provide some support for oil prices. interviewed by Reuters. Related: BP leaves Alaska to double on shale
Several Wall Street investment banks have already warned that the escalation of the US-China trade war increased the chances of an economic slowdown and, as a result, weak growth in oil demand . Some banks have already cut their estimates of oil demand growth for this year, saying oil demand could grow at its slowest pace for at least five years.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered earlier this month its outlook for global oil demand growth for 2019 to 1 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also revised its forecast growth in demand for 2019 this month, down from 100,000 b / d to 1.1 million bp / d, after finding that between January and May, the growth in demand was only 520,000 b / d, the smallest increase since 2008.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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