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TORONTO – Scientists are looking for an accelerating asteroid as it passes through our solar system and warn that it could strike Earth within the next 50 years.
The asteroid Apophis – aptly named for the Egyptian god of chaos – was first discovered in 2004. At the time, astronomers estimated there was a 2.7 percent chance that it hits Earth in 2036.
It is no longer believed to be the case, but new research suggests that the asteroid is less likely to collide with our planet at a later date.
“The Impact 2068 scenario is still in play,” David Tholen said at an American Astronomical Society conference.
Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, told the conference that Apophis observations earlier this year detected signs of Yarkovsky acceleration – a process by which asteroids receive a “small push” of the heat they radiate, altering their speed and trajectory.
CLOSED APPROACH TO COME
It will be nearly another decade before astronomers are able to better project exactly where Apophis will go in 2068.
Those clues will come from a close approach in 2029 – “the, of all dates, Friday April 13,” as Tholen put it. It will be visible to the naked eye, shining like one of the stars of the Big Dipper.
On this day, the asteroid is expected to come as close to our planet as the communications satellites are. The exact distance will determine if his path will take him to our planet in the blink of an eye 39 years later.
“We will know after this happens exactly where it was when Earth passed, and that will make it much easier for us to predict your impact scenarios,” Tholen said.
“If it passes just the right distance from Earth, the Earth’s gravitational pull will change the orbit just enough for it to come back and strike Earth in [2068]. “
WHAT COULD HAPPEN?
When an asteroid enters Earth’s atmosphere, it becomes a meteor. When it falls to the ground, it becomes a meteorite.
Meteorites are a common occurrence. Some of them even come very close to our planet without being detected. Most of the time, they are tiny. This is not the case with Apophis.
According to NASA, Earth is struck by a cosmic body falling the size of a football field about once every 2,000 years. Apophis is three times that size, with a diameter of 323 meters. It’s as long as the Eiffel Tower is high.
If Apophis hits Earth and remains largely intact when it falls to the ground, according to NASA, its size could result in significant localized damage. That said, it’s not big enough to cause a global catastrophe like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs did.
Still, the potential for impact is there – and that means astronomers will eagerly await the 2029 flyby, keen to gather as much information as possible.
“We have to follow this asteroid very carefully,” Tholen said.
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