Apple, Qualcomm will bring you an iPhone 5G – but not this year

Apple and Qualcomm have solved their legal problem, so it is likely that iPhones receive 5G chips faster. But that does not mean we'll see an iPhone 5G this year.

On Tuesday, the two parties announced the unexpected end of their battle over patent licensing, resolving a two-year dispute over Qualcomm's licensing fees. Apple had accused Qualcomm of anti-competitive practices that drove up chip prices, restricted competition, and weighed on customer choice. Qualcomm had replied by saying that the iPhone would not be possible without its technology, so it should be paid for its innovation.

The agreement settles all disputes between companies around the world. Apple has also signed a multi-year supply agreement with Qualcomm, allowing it to access the company's high-end modems again. This includes Qualcomm's 5G chips.

After years of working on 5G networks, considered as the fundamental foundation of augmented reality, telemedicine and other technological trends, ultrafast wireless technology is being rolled out. Operators are starting up their networks and virtually every major Android handset manufacturer has announced plans to launch a 5G device this year. Apple does not have it.

The company was working with Intel on 5G chips, but the chip maker had problems developing the product. A few hours after Apple and Qualcomm announced their settlement on Tuesday, Intel announced the closure of its 5G smartphone modem business. Intel's fight with 5G is probably what brought Apple to the negotiating table with Qualcomm.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Qualcomm's general manager, Steve Mollenkopf, in an interview with CNBC, declined to say when a 5G modem could appear on the iPhone.

"We will not talk about Apple products," he said. "There is obviously the beginning ramp of the 5G widely."

Even though Apple and Qualcomm are working together again, iPhones will not launch immediately with 5G. At the earliest, Apple may be able to introduce a 5G device in 2020.

Here's why:

Modems are complex

Putting a modem in a phone is not as easy as buying the component. And a phone needs more than a modem to connect to a cellular network. Phone designers must have access to the modem manufacturer's software and a phone also requires radio frequency chips and other components that occupy space in the device. The size and capabilities of the modem can dictate aspects of the very design of the iPhone.

Phone manufacturers also need to be able to test modems in their devices before launching them into mass production. Operators need time to certify phones to make sure they work properly on their networks and to provide the promised download and download speeds.

As 5G is a new standard, certification and testing are not as common as they have become with 4G LTE devices. There are different varieties of 5G, millimeter wave and less than 6 GHz, and carriers are divided first. Verizon and AT & T opt for millimeter waves, while T-Mobile focuses on frequencies below 6 GHz.

Apple usually starts selling its iPhones as soon as they are unveiled, and sells them from the beginning in large volumes.

"The design must be completely finalized by the spring before shipping it in the fall," said Bob O Donnell, an analyst at Technalysis Research. "That means everything has been done, tested, evaluated and reviewed by all carriers, and this process takes months."

The next iPhones will probably arrive on the market in September, in only five months. It's too late for all the necessary tests for Qualcomm's 5G chips.

Handset manufacturers need fast access to chips

The use of a modem in a phone requires close cooperation between the handset manufacturer and the chip manufacturer. Modem providers give samples to companies up to 18 months before the chip appears in phones and they often have reference designs to begin testing before finalizing their phones.

Generally, Android companies launch their phones about eight months after receiving modem samples. Apple needs its modems earlier than Android vendors.

Apple began talking to modems providers two years before the launch of the first iPhone, said Tony Blevins, vice president of corporate purchasing, at a test in January.

He no longer needs chips just as early. As a rule, Apple launches an iPhone about a year after receiving wireless chip samples.

Rest that Apple could be cutting short in terms of synchronization to have the 5G in its iPhones of autumn 2020.

"We believe that Apple and Qualcomm had to start working together before April so that Apple could launch 5G-compatible smartphones for the September 2020 iPhone launch period," said the company's president. Canaccord Genuity analyst Mike Walkley.

The 5G multimode chip from Qualcomm will not be widely available until next year

Although everyone uses the same wireless technology, operators use different spectrum bands. And the chip and the antennas of first generation can not exploit all these frequencies simultaneously.

Most of the 5G phones available this year (with the exception of Huawei's) use the Qualcomm X50 modem. The chip only connects to 5G networks, which means that handset manufacturers must also include a second modem for 4G, 3G and 2G in their devices. And the first phones are linked to a specific operator. In other words, the 5G phone you buy for Verizon will only work on Verizon's 5G network.

Once the next Qualcomm X55 chip and its new radios are available, a phone will work on all major spectrum bands around the world. This means we will have unlocked 5G phones – if that's what the handset manufacturers choose. And there will be no need for a handset maker to also buy a separate 4G chip.

Qualcomm said that the X55 would begin to appear in the devices later this year, but that with respect to the X55-equipped handsets, they are more likely to fall in 2020, said Qualcomm's president, Cristiano Amon, at CNET in February at the Mobile World Congress. .

"There are some [phone makers] who are aggressive with their launch dates, "said Amon. We could see some X55, but most smartphones coming from the second quarter up to the holiday season will be [powered by the] … X50. "

Qualcomm needs time to customize modems for Apple

Apple designs its own application processor, the brain of the iPhone, but it relies on third-party chips, such as Qualcomm's, for network connectivity. All Android providers use Qualcomm Snapdragon processors that integrate the modem with the application processor. This improves the life of the battery and has other advantages.

For Apple, Qualcomm takes the modem that it integrates into its Snapdragon processors, surrounds another chipset and includes various software and other elements to make it work in iPhones. Since Apple is the only Qualcomm smartphone customer needing a stand-alone modem, Qualcomm needs to create its custom chips.

At a lawsuit in January, James Thompson, Qualcomm's technical director, said it was costing the company about $ 250 million a year to modify its modems for Apple.

Qualcomm and Apple have not been talking or working together for months, which means that Qualcomm probably does not have a stand-alone modem ready for Apple.

"It usually takes about 18 months to go from an immediate shutdown" to setting up a modem for Apple, said Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon.

Once companies began talking about regulations several weeks ago, Apple asked its suppliers to start testing Qualcomm's current 5G modems, Nikkei reported.

5G networks are still new

Even if a modem was ready for Apple in 2019, it is unlikely that it immediately goes to 5G. The company rarely uses new technologies early, preferring to wait until the bugs are resolved first. He has lagged behind his Android rivals with regard to the adoption of mobile payments and wireless billing, and at least a generation behind the adoption of 3G and 4G LTE cellular capabilities. The same delay was expected with the 5G.

For all others 5G is in its infancy. Most vendors will launch only one 5G model early this year. Moto Z3 Motorola phone with a 5G Moto Mod is the only device currently on the market in the United States. Verizon is the only carrier with a 5G live wireless network, but its initial deployment has been erratic.

By the end of 2020, these insects will all be solved. 5G will be in more cities and, basically, all the flagship Android devices will have access to the fast network.

Apple will not be too far behind it's no 5G phone in 2019. But if it's missing 2020, it could be devastating for its phone business.

"Every major transition in mobile technology has its winners and losers," said Geoff Blaber, an analyst at CCS Insights. "Apple just could not afford to risk its business in the context of a long-term licensing dispute."