Arctic air temperatures are causing a change in the system

A new document shows that air temperature is the "smoking gun" behind climate change in the Arctic, according to John Walsh, chief scientist at the International Arctic Research Center UAF.

"The Arctic system is moving away from its 20th century state to reach an unprecedented state, with implications not only inland but beyond the Arctic," according to the report. Lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.

Several researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks are co-authors of the paper, which states that "increasing air temperature and precipitation are driving major changes in various components of the Arctic system".

This study is the first to combine the observation of physical climate indicators, such as snow cover, with biological impacts, such as an offset in the timing of flowering of flowers and the pollinators.

Climate indicators are key pieces of information that capture the essence of a system, according to Walsh. The extent of sea ice in September, for example, summarizes the effects of factors such as temperature, winds, ocean heat and other variables.

"I did not expect the temperature link to be so strong," Walsh said. "All variables are temperature-related, and all components of the Arctic system are involved in this change."

"Never before have so many Arctic indicators been put together in one document," he said.

The authors correlated recordings from 1971 to 2017 of nine key indicators: air temperature, permafrost, hydroclimatology, snow cover, sea ice, terrestrial ice, forest fires, tundra and terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. All indicators correlate with rising temperatures, suggesting global warming and fundamental change in the Arctic.

"The Arctic system is moving away from its 20th century state to reach an unprecedented state, with implications not only inland but beyond the Arctic," according to the report. Lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.

"As the Arctic atmosphere heats up faster than the rest of the world, weather conditions in Europe, North America and Asia are becoming more and more persistent, resulting in extreme weather conditions. example is the disruption of ocean circulation that can further destabilize the climate: for example, the cooling of northwestern Europe and the strengthening of storms, "said Box.

The document is the centerpiece of a special issue on Arctic climate change indicators published by the journal Letters of research on the environment. Igor Polyakov, IARC, is the editor-in-chief of this special issue, which has been co-written by scientists from the UAF. Besides Walsh, the authors include Uma Bhatt and Vladimir Romanovsky from the Institute of Geophysics and Eugenie Euskirchen of the Institute of Arctic Biology, as well as many international colleagues.

The study authors hope that these indicator-based observations will provide a basis for a more integrated understanding of the Arctic and its role in the dynamics of Earth's biogeophysical systems.