[ad_1]
Experts are divided over whether the waning delta wave will be the last major COVID-19 wave to hit the United States, as Americans eager to see the pandemic end after 19 months.
The vaccination rate and declining cases in most states have given a glimmer of hope that the pandemic could end after its last big wave, some experts say.
But other public health experts warn the unpredictability of the virus suggests yet another surge could occur as the country prepares for winter – which has led to skyrocketing cases, deaths and hospitalizations last year.
Nicholas Reich, professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said there would be no other major wave after delta “feels” like a “premature” and “bold” statement.
“Is there a chance? Sure, but I feel like if there’s one thing we’ve learned from this, it’s that there’s a lot more uncertainty and randomness …
Some experts, including Reich, have pointed out that factors such as the potential development of variants and the unknown endurance of immunity after infection and vaccination could trigger a larger-scale increase in COVID-19 cases after the country has experienced a national decline.
The drop in the number of cases comes after the delta strain fueled a peak, reaching a seven-day average of more than 175,000 daily cases in mid-September. But on Thursday, that average fell below 100,000 for the first time since Aug. 4, according to data from the New York Times.
Overall, 39 states have seen their seven-day COVID-19 case averages drop in the past two weeks. Despite these declines in cases, COVID-19 is not eliminated and “several hundred thousand people will still be infected” as the pandemic continues, Reich said.
As COVID-19 numbers move “in the right direction,” parts of the country, including Alaska and West Virginia, are still “very much in the middle of the delta wave,” said Leana Wen, emergency physician and public health specialist. professor at George Washington University.
“I am very worried that people are becoming complacent because they think the delta wave is overtaking us,” she said. “We’ve seen this happen before, where there is an increase in the number of cases, then a decrease, and then people let their guard down. And as a result, we place at a very high level of cases. This is unacceptable.
The approaching winter season also makes it difficult to predict future trends in COVID-19, as coronaviruses can spread more easily in cold weather and in indoor spaces. Last winter, the United States saw its biggest increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths at holiday gatherings before vaccines became widely available.
Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said he expects cases to increase in winter after hitting a low in October, but likely to be lower on the rise of the delta.
“I think some people will be surprised that it doesn’t continue to go away, and… it doesn’t seem very likely,” he said.
Wen, of George Washington University, said that having only 56.2% of the total U.S. population fully vaccinated and fewer restrictions than last year leaves uncertainty that the Delta Wave could be the latest major wave of COVID-19 in the United States.
“I don’t know how we could say that given that we don’t know what’s going to happen,” Wen said.
“I don’t know how we can know for sure that the level of protection we have achieved through vaccination is sufficient,” she said, adding that she hopes the end is “on the horizon.” with childhood vaccines, oral therapy and more testing.
Others, including former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb, have taken a more optimistic stance, anticipating cases will no longer reach summer delta levels.
“Barring something unexpected, I am of the opinion that this is the last major wave of infection,” Gottlieb told The New York Times this week.
Amesh Adalja, a senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told MSNBC on Friday that any increase in winter cases will likely be “more decoupled from hospitalizations and deaths” due to increased immunity from vaccines and infections.
“A lot more people have been vaccinated, so many more people have natural immunity to this great delta wave and unfortunately so many people have died that we probably won’t see peaks like the ones we’ve seen in the past, especially when it comes to what matters is hospitalization, serious illness and death, ”he said.
“I think delta was hopefully the worst this virus can inflict on us,” he added.
David Dowdy, associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said he thinks it is “unlikely” that the United States will experience another wave of COVID-19 “at the level” of the summer delta and previous winter surges.
With the level of immunization increasing and a “good amount” of unvaccinated people infected, Americans’ immunity is “higher now than it has ever been,” he said.
The emergence of a new variant could potentially threaten this immunity if the strain escapes vaccines. But Dowdy said he didn’t expect this in the short term, as the Delta reigned as the dominant variant around the world for months without another strain usurping it.
“I think anyone who says they can predict the future of this pandemic is probably lying to you,” Dowdy said. “But I think we have a lot of reason to be optimistic that we won’t see another massive wave like we’ve seen so far.”
[ad_2]
Source link