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Los Angeles County faces its most heartbreaking coronavirus count ever as the pandemic continues its record-breaking rampage across California and officials put further restrictions on activities and social gatherings.
Daily infections in the county have quadrupled and daily deaths have tripled in a matter of weeks, a rate of growth that has led to “the most alarming measures we’ve ever seen,” according to Barbara Ferrer, county public health director .
“The risk at this point is that overwhelming the health care system is now a very real possibility,” she told the LA County Oversight Board on Tuesday.
Over the past seven weeks, the number of daily new coronavirus cases in the county, on average over a seven-day period, has risen from less than 1,000 to more than 4,000, an analysis from The Times found.
COVID-19 hospitalizations have more than doubled in just three weeks, from around 800 on Halloween day to 1,700 on Monday. The average number of daily deaths also tripled to an average of 29 during the seven-day period that ended on Tuesday.
The positive return rate from coronavirus tests in LA County is now 6.6%, nearly double what it was at the end of October and triple the rate in San Francisco.
“These very large increases in cases and hospitalizations will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the number of people who have died,” Ferrer said.
Already, around 7,500 county residents have died from COVID-19, more than double the number of flu-related deaths in the last cold and flu season.
Hospitalizations are expected to continue to skyrocket in the coming weeks as new infections are diagnosed.
State health officials have estimated that about 12% of those who tested positive ended up being hospitalized two to three weeks later, so a sustained and significant increase could push hospitals to their homes. limits.
Without a widespread and renewed commitment to take the necessary steps to prevent the transmission of the disease, “I anticipate that we will use the currently available beds that hospitals currently plan to have,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, LA County Director. . health services.
“The challenge, as has been the case throughout the pandemic, is staffing, most directly in our intensive care unit, where capacity is more limited,” she said Tuesday.
About a quarter of all patients with COVID-19 need intensive care level treatment.
Sadly, with California and much of the country also seeing an increase in cases, it will be much more difficult to call for staff help if shortages reach crisis levels in LA County.
The state recorded 16,681 new cases on Tuesday alone, the second-highest number on record in a single day behind Monday’s figure of 20,654 alone, according to an independent Times investigation of California counties.
The state’s last major wave of coronavirus, after Memorial Day, was followed by a spike in daily deaths two months later.
If this pattern continues, it’s plausible that LA County could face a spike in daily COVID-19 deaths by Christmas or later.
As of Tuesday, LA County had recorded an average of 4,300 new infections daily over a seven-day period, according to the Times analysis. In the summer, the average of new daily coronavirus cases reached 3,300.
Within one to two weeks, officials say the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in LA County could increase by 30%, to about 2,200. That would equate to the highest total on record in the county. .
In light of the outbreak, the county has advanced further actions to control the spread of the disease. A new order closing restaurant outdoor dining areas for at least three weeks will go into effect Wednesday evening.
The move was not without controversy, however, and two members of the county supervisory board pushed unsuccessfully to repeal it on Tuesday.
County officials are also preparing a new health ordinance that is expected to ban all gatherings except outdoor religious services and outdoor events, and reduce store capacity before the traditional post-shopping season begins. -Thanksgiving.
The state also imposed new measures, including an ordinance banning most non-essential activities outside the home from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in counties – such as LA County> – which are located in the strictest level, “purple” of the reopening of the state by color code. road map.
“Each day that we wait to make these changes means that we will have another day of severe cases, another day of pressure on our hospitals, and this is something we all have the power and responsibility to change,” he said. said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Secretary of Health and Human Services.
The problem now is that with infections much higher than ever before, activities that seemed safe a month ago are now potentially much more dangerous.
“In general what we know is that every time we get together with people where your guard comes down your mask comes off, you are closer a few feet apart, it there is a risk of transmission, ”said Mark Ghaly.
Because the virus can be transmitted without the infected person ever getting sick, he added, “most people with COVID may not know it, you are creating a real risk … as these activities increase , we know you’re going to see a transmission. “
As one explanation for the current spike in infections, officials cite the onset of colder weather that keeps people indoors, increasing the risk of transmission; increased travel from hard-hit states to gatherings to celebrate holidays or attend sporting events; protests and celebrations related to recent elections; an increase in outbreaks in the workplace; and the mistaken belief that the danger of the pandemic has passed.
Health officials are particularly worried that crowds could carry the virus with them as they travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, just as similar holiday trips to China for the Lunar New Year fueled the start of the pandemic.
Federal, state and local authorities have urged people to stay home for Thanksgiving and to cancel travel plans.
So far, California remains on the whole in a better position than some other parts of the country where hospitals are already overwhelmed. But officials say they fear that could easily change.
Pandemic measures have worked twice in the past to significantly slow the spread of the disease – first in the spring, when a drastic stay-at-home order was imposed; then again in early summer, when Governor Gavin Newsom ordered the closure of bars, indoor restaurants and cinemas in the most affected counties.
Experts and health officials stress that the individual personal decisions residents make will always play a central role in taming the new wave.
“COVID doesn’t care what we did before today. COVID only cares about how we act now, ”LA Mayor Eric Garcetti said earlier this week. “And the moment we stop acting to protect lives, the moment we ignore the numbers or hope they will somehow disappear, is the moment when lives are lost.”
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