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The recent spike in COVID-19, driven by the highly contagious delta variant, shows no signs of stopping so far in Minnesota, and it is greater Minnesota that is bearing the brunt of the cases.
Bring Me The News wrote in early September how the case ratio had changed so that a disproportionate number was now being reported in greater Minnesota as opposed to the 7-county Twin Cities subway, where 55.5% of Minnesota residents live.
Since then, the growth of cases has slowed in the subway but has accelerated in greater Minnesota, with the ratio increasing to the point that more than 3 in 5 new virus cases reported are coming from outside the 7-county subway.
Here’s how the ratio has changed over the past two weeks, looking at how many new cases reported since September 19 have come from the metro.
- 20/09: 2,474 cases – 1,126 metro (45.5%), 1,348 MN from the large.
- 09/21: 6,352 cases (data over 3 days) – 2,654 metro (41.7%), 3,698 MN higher.
- 09/22: 1,624 cases – 731 metro (44.5%), 902 MN from the large.
- 23/09: 2,434 cases – 913 metro (37.5%), 1,521 MN from the large.
- 09/24 /: 2,997 cases – 1,111 metro (37%), 1,886 MN from Grand.
- 09/27: 2,803 cases – 1,081 metro (38.5%), 1,722 MN from Grand MN.
- 09/28: 6,203 cases (3-day data) – 2,590 metro (41.7%), 3,613 MN higher.
- 09/29: 2,077 cases – 791 metro (38%), 1,286 MN from the large.
- 09/30: 2,874 cases – 1,052 metro (36.6), 1,822 Grand MN.
- 01/10: 3,714 cases – 1,447 metro (39%), 2,267 MN from the great.
- 04/10: 3,546 cases – 1,220 metro (34.4%), 2,326 large MN.
On Monday, Minnesota recorded more than 3,500 cases for the second day in a row, and there were notable county numbers contained inside.
For example, Scott County in the Twin Cities released 48 new cases in Monday’s data for a population of 149,000, roughly the same number of cases in several much smaller counties in greater Minnesota, such as Itasca ( 47 cases, 47,000 inhabitants), McLeod (44 cases, 36,000 inhabitants) and Polk (55 cases, 35,000 inhabitants).
And Stearns County, where some companies now enact vaccine or negative test requirements, has recorded 152 of its 161,000 residents, 55 percent more than the 98 cases in Washington County, which has 262,000 residents, and not far from the 179 cases recorded in Ramsey County, which has a population of 550,000.
The first peaks of COVID-19 were felt most severely in the more densely populated 7-county metro, but that appears to have changed following the introduction of the delta variant in the state, with the metro now seeing some of the most low per capita case rate in Minnesota.
This is the first major wave of the virus in Minnesota since most of its residents were vaccinated, with the seven counties that make up the metro having the highest vaccination rates in the state. The seven counties have more than 70% of their residents aged 12 and over with at least one dose of the vaccine.
Metropolitan counties also tended during the pandemic to see more residents consistently wearing face masks compared to parts of greater Minnesota. All counties in Minnesota are currently at “high or substantial COVID transmission” levels that the CDC says should require masks to be worn in crowded indoor and outdoor public environments.
School districts in the Twin Cities are also more likely to have higher vaccination rates among children ages 12 to 17 and to have passed mask mandates for students than those in greater Minnesota. The latest data shows the 10-19 age group has a higher COVID positivity rate than any other age group in Minnesota.
Of the 231 schools in Minnesota that have reported 5 or more cases of COVID-19 since the start of the year, 126 of them (54%) are from greater Minnesota.
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There has also been a shift in where deaths from COVID-19 are occurring in Minnesota, to the point that they are now increasingly coming from outside its most populous region, although the ratio between metro / grand MN is closer than it is for the cases.
Figures reported on Monday (data as of Friday, October 1) show that 13 of the 21 deaths recorded from COVID-19 were from outside the 7-county metro. As of Friday, it was 9 out of 17 deaths.
Last Wednesday and Thursday there were more deaths reported in the subway (24 of 44) than in greater Minnesota, but last Monday and Tuesday more came from greater Minnesota (19 of 33).
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