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Dr Ashish Jha said on Monday that the United States was “on the road to recovery” from COVID-19, but there are still some “obstacles”.
One of the most important is the variant of the virus first detected in the UK, B.1.1.7, which spreads easier and faster than other strains.
So far, 690 cases of the variant have been detected in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which warned B.1.1.7 could become the dominant source coronavirus infections in the country in March. Seven cases have been confirmed to date in Massachusetts, according to the CDC.
Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said Monday the United States is seeing positive trends, including lower infection rates and hospitalizations. He also expects vaccines to be “plentiful” by the end of spring.
“I’m optimistic for the end of spring and summer,” Jha wrote on Twitter. “But worried for the next two months.”
Infections are down by around 50%
Hospitalizations are down by around 33%
Vaccines will be plentiful in late spring
All good news, right?
Yes!
But
On the road to recovery, we still have some difficulties
A big one is the B117 – the British variant
My thread on why this is so concerning https://t.co/InmwKXFWD3
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 8, 2021
The doctor pointed to data from Ireland and Germany which illustrates how B.1.1.7 can “quickly overwhelm a nation”. Ireland, he noted, used a lockdown to control peak infections in October. But as the British variant began to circulate, the country experienced “exponential growth”, seeing its number of cases multiply more and more in three weeks. The country has entered a complete lockdown at the end of December.
At its peak in early January, Ireland recorded 132 new cases per 100,000 population, according to Jha – a rate the United States has never seen.
“Our vacation ‘wave’ was small in comparison, ”Jha wrote.
As it stands, Jha estimated that “maybe” 2 percent of COVID-19 infections in the United States are caused by the UK variant.
“But we don’t know because we still don’t do enough genomic monitoring,” he wrote. “So most public health experts expect a B117 spike. But we can avoid a horrific spike that flattens our hospitals and kills tens of thousands. “
To prepare for and prevent such an outbreak of the variant, the United States must “dramatically step up” genomic surveillance to find the strain.
As soon as infections start to spread, action must be taken quickly to stem the spread, he said.
“Our vaccines will work against B.1.1.7,” Jha wrote. “And they will lessen the effects on people at high risk if we can put them to the guns quickly enough.” Today’s analysis shows that B117 will become widespread in the United States. But he doesn’t need to flatten us. We have the tools to beat it. “
B117 is much more contagious – so it can quickly overwhelm a nation
Excellent article on Andersen’s article and broader issues by @carlzimmer in @New York Times today
If you want to understand what this variant can do to a nation, let’s take a look at some data.
2/8https: //t.co/i29RXdr5jM
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
In mid-December Germany (red) looked worse than Ireland (blue)
But the B117 was circulating in Ireland and starting to develop
Not so much in Germany
And what happened next in Ireland was really difficult
What you are seeing is exponential growth
4/8 pic.twitter.com/tNeEMVmBbG
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Cases peaked at 1/9 in 132 new cases / 100K
The United States has never seen such numbers
Only the Dakota had such high infection rates
In comparison, here is the United States during this period
Our vacation “wave” was small in comparison
6/8 pic.twitter.com/Pvf61msJXq
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Maybe 2% of our infections are from B117
But we don’t know because we still don’t do enough genomic monitoring
So, most public health experts expect a peak in B117
But we can avoid a horrible spike that flattens our hospitals and kills tens of thousands
How? ‘Or’ What?
8/9
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
Our vaccines will work against B117
And they will mitigate the effects on those at high risk
If we can put them in our arms fast enough
Today’s analysis shows B117 will become widespread in the United States
But it don’t need to flatten us
We have the tools to beat it
End
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) February 7, 2021
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