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As the United States and China transform the trade dispute of last year into a large-scale economic war, the decisive fact of this conflict has never been mentioned: China has already won the decisive commitment in the conflict.
That's what happened when Washington cajoled and threatened its allies to boycott Huawei's deployment of broadband 5G, and suffered the most humiliating retort in the writer's memory.
China has unleashed a global network effect that begins with the dominance of ultra-fast broadband and extends to e-commerce, finance, logistics and transportation – the way to commercialize the work of billions of people in southern countries. China's lead in 5G also gives it a head start in a wide range of industrial and consumer applications.
Among these applications, the one that irritates US security institutions the most is quantum cryptography, a technology invented by China and theoretically unassailable.
Intelligence agencies
Sure July 7 I revealed in this publication that the new 5G systems would integrate quantum cryptography, preventing US intelligence agencies from listening to world communications and destroying a key US benefit.
That's why the intelligence community has convinced the Trump administration to defeat the deployment of Huawei's 5G at all costs.
Controlling breakthrough technologies like 5G broadband – the kind of technology that is transforming the lives of billions of people and generating billions of dollars in wealth – is happening for the first time in China.
While China has a troubling history of technology theft, its misplaced behavior in the past is of minor importance compared to its local innovations.
The United States did not bring the knife to a shooting. This has not brought anything to the shooting because no American company manufactures 5G equipment and the European alternatives to Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia offer a lower quality and more expensive product.
The Trump administration may have tried to persuade American companies to enter the market, but it showed no interest in creating a US national champion to compete with Huawei.
Missing skills
The US trade deficit with China is a minor problem after the technological war that the United States is losing. China's most exported products to the United States are low value-added consumer electronic products, products for which the United States lacks the skills and supply chain necessary to manufacture, and they do not wish to manufacture, because the labor force is paid below American standards.
The United States lost the first decisive engagement of the economic war with China. To my knowledge, Washington does not plan to relaunch US production of key technologies, nor to invest in R & D to allow the United States to counter China's advantage in some key technologies.
Washington's military and national security institutions are now in a collective crisis in the face of the hitherto unimaginable fact that the Chinese have prevailed.
US rancor against China stems from the belated realization that laziness, complacency and impertility have helped a country that two generations ago starved 50 million of its people to death and defied US rule. .
Hope of lost victory?
He recalls the urgent advice that Kaiser Wilhelm II sent to his cousin Nicholas II of Russia in 1904 to wage war against Japan as a "savior of the white race". As a result, Russia lost its entire fleet in Japan and unleashed the revolution of 1905. Finally, the fall of the Romanov dynasty.
Since a year ago I've warned that the American confrontation with China would result in the economic equivalent of Port Arthur.
On June 12, 2003, I observed in this publication that the most serious damage caused by war generally occurs after the disappearance of the hope of victory. Unfortunately, this could also apply to the economic war between the United States and China.
Due to the migration of Asia Times archives to a new server, the article is not available at the moment. I quote the relevant content below:
"A recurring theme in the history of the war is that most murders take place long after rational calculation has called for surrender on the losing side. Think of the Japanese after Okinawa, the Germans after the Battle of the Bulge or the last phase of the Peloponnesian War, the Thirty Years War or the Hundred Years War. Through time and culture, blood has flown in inverse proportion to the hope of victory. Perhaps what the Middle East needs to reach a peace deal is no less a killing, but more.
"Mut der Verzweiflung, as the Germans call it, the courage born of despair does not come from the illusion that victory is possible, but from the conviction that death is preferable to capitulation. Wars of this type end well after the defeat of one side, namely when a sufficient number of murderers have been killed. Do not blame the provincialism of the president. It has nothing to do with Bushido, Nazi fanaticism or other exotic ideologies.
"The most convincing case of Mut der Verzweiflung can be found in Bush's back yard, during the American Civil War of 1861-1865. The Southern cause was lost after the capture of Vicksburg by General Ulysses Grant and General George G. Meade repelled General Robert E. Lee at Gettysburg in July 1863. Union forces controlled the Mississippi main artery Southern Trade, and without the prospect of a breakthrough in the north, the Confederation of Slavery States faces an inevitable strangulation by the largely superior forces of the North.
"Nevertheless, the South has beaten for another 18 months. Between Gettysburg and Vicksburg, the two decisive battles of the war took place in the same week, 100,000 men had died, bringing the total death toll in major battles to more than a quarter of a million. 200,000 more soldiers would die before Lee went to Grant at Appomattox in April 1865 ".
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