Asteroid Apophis may be more likely to hit Earth in 2068 than previously thought

David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, recently reported on the status of asteroid Apophis at a virtual meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s Division of Planetary Sciences. During his presentation, he described the research he and his team had done regarding the asteroid’s path and the likelihood of it hitting Earth.

The asteroid Apophis was first spotted by astronomers in 2004. Soon after, researchers determined its orbital path and discovered that the 340-meter-wide asteroid would pass close to Earth in 2029, 2036 and again in 2068. Further studies have shown that there is little chance that the asteroid will hit Earth; thus, he was dismissed as a threat. More recently, Tholen and his team noted that earlier researchers failed to explain the Yarkovsky effect whereby the sun hits one side of an asteroid. As heat radiates away from the asteroid, a small amount of energy pushes the asteroid back, causing it to spin slightly. Tholen and his team calculated that the Yarkovsky effect pushes Apophis to one side enough to force him to drift about 170 meters per year. They then applied this knowledge to the mathematics describing Apophis’ orbit and found that the drift altered the course of the asteroid in a way that would bring it closer to Earth. He notes that so far there is no indication that the asteroid will hit Earth in 2029 and 2036, but 2068 could be another matter. He suggests that astronomers will need to keep an eye on Apophis as his date approaches.

As news of a possible Apophis threat arises, others have pointed out that the human race has made strides in protecting the planet from asteroid attacks. NASA’s DART mission, for example, slated for 2022, will involve sending a spacecraft to an asteroid called Didymos and using it to alter the trajectory of Dimorphos, one of its moons. Tholen noted during his speech that studying Apophis during his visit to 2029 should give scientists a much better idea of ​​whether or not she poses a real threat in 2068.

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