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Atmospheric carbon the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) will exceed a frightening threshold this year, exceeding 417 parts per million (ppm) – a 50% increase since the start of widespread industrial activity in the 18th century.
The forecast comes from the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, which used data collected at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Even though there has been a slight drop in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic and the current La Niña event (a weather pattern in the Pacific that typically reduces global carbon emissions), this was not enough to offset previous increases.
“Because CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a very long time, each year’s emissions are added to those of previous years and cause the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to continue to increase”, Richard Betts, head of the impact group climate at the Met Office and principal researcher for forecasts, said in a press release.
Related: 10 scorching signs in 2020 that climate change is accelerating
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere follows predictable seasonal variations. Levels peak in May, then decline over the summer as plants grow in the northern hemisphere and suck carbon (with photosynthesis), before rising again starting in September.
Although the total amount of CO2 emitted globally in 2020 decreased by 7% compared to previous years, emissions have almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to the Met Office.
The current La Niña event, which has been causing unusually cool weather since mid-2020, is also expected to reduce the rate of CO2 increase this year. This is due to a temporary increase in the amount of carbon stored in ecosystems like tropical forests, which thrive more quickly under cooler conditions.
However, this is still not enough to prevent the planet from reaching the worrying CO2 threshold this year.
Fleeting acceleration
The Mauna Loa Observatory maintains the oldest continuous record of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the world.
Since climatologist Charles David Keeling began these recordings in 1958, scientists have used the data to track atmospheric CO2 levels using the Keeling curve, a graph that has become an iconic symbol of the growing impact of humanity on the global climate system.
This means that we have a lot of work to do to achieve the goal of the International Panel on Climate Change of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
“Reversing this trend and slowing the rise in atmospheric CO2 will require a reduction in global emissions, and stopping them will require that global emissions be reduced to net zero,” Betts said. “This has to happen in the next 30 years or so if global warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
The Met Office published the CO2 forecast for 2021 Jan 8.
Originally posted on Live Science.
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