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She replied that Copenhagen had weakened the government's position and that she doubted that we could win a double dissolution election against [Tony] Abbott on a "pocket" issue like the CPRS. I said that it was absurd; in the last paper, I had an Abbott advance of 60 to 23 percent and the government of 56 to 44 percent, and we had not been late since coming to management at the end of 2006.
But then came the second message. "We must also abandon our policy on CPRS," said Julia, "otherwise we are entering an election year with a huge target painted on our front."
This one knocked me out. I knew that Julia had not contributed much to Cabinet climate change debates in the last 18 months, unless they turned into a discussion about the costs to consumers. I also knew that she was critical of Peter Garrett's environmental evangelism. But until our conversation that day, it did not occur to me that his beliefs on the fundamental issue of tackling climate change were so slim.
"I want you to be Australia's first female prime minister"
Alister, my chief of staff, has maintained his habit of walking with Julia the mornings of weeks of parliamentary sittings. One February morning, to her surprise, she told him openly about the need to kill both the CPRS and the idea of a double dissolution. She feared losing the next election unless she changed course and, she told Alister, Mark Arbib shared his point of view. Alister recommended that I call for another discussion.
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So at the beginning of February, I asked her what was bothering her. She was not coming. She kept coming back to her simple message that CPRS was now an "electoral poison" and that she would die in the ditch after trying to hold a "double D". I replied that we should continue to discuss these issues with our colleagues. There was no particular urgency to make a decision.
Then I mentioned the unimaginable: "Julia, do you realize that I do not intend to be prime minister for life? I have no intention of going through [John] Howard's record. In fact, I have no intention of going through [Bob] Hawke's record. It is a fatal job, which you will discover yourself one day, in a few years. "
She stared at me silently, intently.
I continued, "Not only do I want you to be the first woman prime minister of Australia, I want to make it easier. In fact, I want to be part of achieving this goal. "
At this point, she became visibly uncomfortable and asked me to drop the subject. I ignored her and told her how I felt. "I want to win the 2010 elections, win the 2013 elections and leave at some point during a third term."
Julia just looked at me. Silently. Impbadive. Then, saying that she had to go to a meeting, she got up and went out.
"An atmosphere of crisis"
The morning of Wednesday, June 23 began with the usual drive from the pavilion to Parliament. When I arrived at the office, Alister greeted me with the first page of The Sydney Morning Herald. My chef de cabinet, still unshakable, was shaken. He had just received Gillard's phone. The subject of the conversation was an article by Peter Hartcher, the Herald's political and international editor, with the title: Rudd's secret poll on his leaders. He claimed that Alister had rang around the parliamentary party the day before asking for pledges of support in the face of a challenge to Gillard's leadership. He told me that Gillard was "out of self" in the belief that his loyalty had been questioned. The real problem, however, was that the story was not true. Nevertheless, the briefing of the story was a clever piece of those who had done it, knowing that Hartcher had long been seen in the press gallery as close to me. Whatever the truth of my relationship with Peter Hartcher – and it was infinitely more complex than that – it had been the impression that one of my relatives had deliberately let the story slip away. . Its effect was immediate. This created an atmosphere of crisis when there was none before. It suited Arbib, Feeney, and those who were planning the ground blow. They needed a catalyst to act. Now, they had one.
Alister suggested I go see Gillard, so I went to his office. She was sitting there, her face dark, her glbades naked, not showing a flicker of human emotion, a yellow highlighter in her hand, scientifically marking the offending column, identifying clues as to her pedigree. I had already seen Gillard do it several times before. However, it was the first time that she accused my own office of being the culprit.
I told her that she was just wrong. I said that the purpose of the story was to create a gap between us two. She remained unconvinced, without giving any reason.
"In the face of absolute betrayal"
Late in the afternoon, faction leaders of the national right wing – Arbib, Swan, Stephen Conroy, David Feeney and Don Farrell – decided, with Gillard's consent, to finally let the war dogs fall. They began to inform caucus members of the "research" polls conducted by Arbib, Feeney and Karl Bitar. Caucus members were told that the only way to survive the next election was to "dismiss the Prime Minister" and replace him with Gillard. Caucus members quickly returned to the office.
I called Swan directly on the phone from his office, which I rarely did. He replied, not knowing that it was me.
"What's going on?" I asked.
"I told them not to do it," he said.
"Do what?"
"Challenge," he says.
"What are you doing, Wayne?"
There was a long silence before the fateful answer: "I will vote for the change."
"So you told them not to challenge, but now you tell me you're voting for change. How does it compare?
Another silence, then: "I'm with Julia."
"So, after all these years, Wayne – when you begged me to be named treasurer of the shadow although you did everything to oppose you before becoming a leader, and after promising your loyalty right here when I appointed you treasurer – you're You do that?
Silence. "Goodbye, Wayne." I hung up. There was nothing else to say in the face of absolute betrayal.
"Why do you really do that?
Around 9 pm, Gillard arrived. Her eyes were cold as she said was difficult for management.
I said that I had already badumed that, although I was informed by the reports, not by her. What was his reason for challenging? I asked.
She said she did not believe we could win the election for the end of the year under my leadership. I asked him for proof. She talked about "party research". I asked to see him. She refused.
I've highlighted the two – day favorite Newspoll two days earlier, which we had comfortably ahead of us, just as we had been for 84 of 86 previous Newspolls. To that she had no answer.
I then asked him right away, "Why are you really doing this?"
I had warned her that she had been badly advised by her new supporters of the right faction. I also reminded her of the conversation I had with her in February when we declared my intention to oversee an orderly transition as the next leader. Gillard did not dispute anything. She sat there without saying anything.
I then asked if she would hand her challenge to party leadership until November, just before the next election. I said that if John Faulkner concluded at the time that the party could not win then with me as a leader, based on the actual research of the party, I would resign in his favor.
Suddenly she was interested. And almost an hour and a quarter later, she agreed: the coup d'etat would not take place. We were shaken, with Faulkner present throughout the conversation.
While I was going to prepare a statement to the media confirming that our political disagreement had been resolved, Gillard left the room. Barely three minutes later, she came back and gave up the agreement.
She then said, still without emotion: "I ask you now to vote."
I'm shocked, I told him, "You've just reneged on an agreement we shook hands on just five minutes ago."
She just nodded and, reluctantly, said, "Yes." It turned out that the whole market had only been a tactic. I had been distracted for two precious hours looking for an honest resolution, while Gillard's supporters had been caught off guard by the caucus and the media. At that time, it was too late to organize a counterattack. The dice had been thrown.
This is an edited excerpt from The PM years, by Kevin Rudd, published Oct. 23 (Pan Macmillan, RRP $ 44.99).
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