China's growth at its lowest level since 2009 | TIME ONLINE



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China Growth fell suddenly strong. The gross domestic product grew by 6.5 percent between July and September compared to the same period last year, the statistics bureau said in Beijing. Analysts' expectations have been missed. They were expecting a gain of 6.7% in the previous quarter with 6.6%.

To explain the development of the experts, especially the commercial dispute with the USAThe two countries have been covering each other for months with import duties. Real relaxation in the conflict is not yet in sight. China's growth in the last quarter was the weakest since the first quarter of 2009, when the global financial crisis weighed on the economy. Industrial production in September was 5.8% lower than expected by experts.

On the other hand, investments made in the first nine months of the year and retail sales in September rose more than expected. Foreign trade remained stable in the third quarter, in part because exporters wanted to anticipate the special duties imposed by the United States. Observers are therefore expecting the trade dispute to become much heavier in the coming months, as most of the US special duties on imports from China have only been in force since last month.

In order to keep the level of growth relatively stable, the government has already relaxed monetary and fiscal policy, said Max Zenglein of the China Institute Merics in Berlin. "The Chinese government fears a major economic slowdown." It is therefore trying to give a new impetus to growth, for example through infrastructure projects.

However, new threats have threatened: China has been "faced with a combination of external and internal risk factors due to the trade dispute and excessive debt," Zenglein said. Pekin be forced to act. "This clearly shows that the resilience of the Chinese economy is down."

The fight against debt and financial risks increases the credit costs of companies. In addition, the confidence of market players is declining, said Liu Yuanchun, economics professor at Beijing People's University. "The economy is affected by a slowing trend of investment and consumption." In the fourth quarter, the trade dispute between China and the United States will have an even more direct impact.

Talks between the two states are currently suspended. However, US President Donald Trump and the Chinese party Xi Jinping will meet at the top of the G20 major economies in Buenos Aires in late November.

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