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By Matthias Sauermann
Washington – On the eve of the November 8 presidential election, two years ago, when Donald Trump was suddenly named the 45th President of the United States, American Republicans and their supporters triumphed. The hated political establishment was defeated in person by Democrat Hillary Clinton. With entrepreneur Donald Trump, it is now someone who takes over, which promises to restore glory to the country. Recover jobs in declining industries, such as mining, to strengthen the economy. To stop the migration. And do not mince words.
At the same time, many Liberals and Democrats have collapsed. They would never have thought that a man like Trump, who had been accused of hostile claims against Muslims during the election campaign, had badually insulted women and even provoked people with disabilities and disabilities. families of American soldiers killed, could come out victorious from the election. Hillary Clinton was revealed to be a candidate who had not mobilized enough – and many regretted the missed opportunity for Bernie Sanders not to have been sent in the race against Trump.
For the first time in the US mid-term elections on November 6, both sides will have the opportunity to show their views at the polls two years later. Did the politics of Donald Trump and the Republicans convince his followers? Or do the Democrats win and Trump for the first time real rivals, including a threat of removal?
"Blue Wave" is far for the Democrats
Immediately after the 2016 US elections, we had the impression that a blue wave with a historic Democrats victory in 2018 was unstoppable. For the Trump election, a few tens of thousands of votes would have taken some distances in some US states. Too few supporters of the Democrats went to the elections – also because Hillary Clinton's victory was for sure a lot. Mixed with the indignation over Trump's election and his politics, nothing more possible, it's a landslide victory for Trump opponents.
The Russian affair, riots at Team Trump and revelations about what happened at the White House reinforced this impression during the reign of the new American president. Current investigations and developments show, however, that the bill is much more complicated. And Republicans hope to retain a majority in both houses of parliament.
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Some developments play in the hands of Trump
This is also the performance of US President Donald Trump himself: as he struggled in places where approval ratings were historically low, more and more Americans are currently benefiting from Republican politics. In recent weeks, a quiet policy without major scandals, but with national successes such as the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court despite allegations of abuse contributed to it. It remains to be seen how the letter bombed by Trump's critics and the Pittsburgh mbadacre will affect the ballot box. Both acts were allegedly committed by Trump supporters.
Meanwhile, Trump and his strategists are skilfully kicking his base. One example is the recent launch of the intention to change the definition of transgender people and cement the biological genus found at birth. While many Liberals call the project discrimination, Trump's base is happy. the New York Times quotes, for example, the conservative pastor and Trump supporter Robert Jeffress. The proposal was "well framed" to "reflect the differences between the objectives of G.O.P. and emphasize the Democrats". These are "obsessed with social and moral anarchy".
Finally, the march of refugees from Honduras via Mexico to the United States is also in the hands of Republicans. The main themes of Trump have always been the protection of the border, the fear of excessive migration and the promise to build a wall on the border with Mexico. The many refugees Trump seems to confirm for many Americans – and he also tries to blame the Democrats directly.
What do the numbers say?
Democrats and Republicans are forbidden to watch these polls. At first glance, these seem promising for Democrats: The Politics Portal fivethirtyeight gives Democrats about 85 percent chance of taking a majority in the House of Representatives. the economist after all, the probability of a blue electoral victory in the House of Representatives still rises to 71%. Only 17% chance fivethirtyeight the Democrats to take control of the Senate. However, even with a repainted House of Representatives, Democrats could decisively decide the agenda.
At first glance, it would seem that Trump's opponents are waiting for a win. However, this appearance could be misleading. It is relatively unlikely that a goal will be scored in the game stops of a football match. If this happens, no one is shocked.
In reality, Trump's victory in similar circumstances – Hillary Clinton's victory was highly likely and many remained away from the ballot box – his opponents still have heavy belly. However, it will suffice to see if this will be enough to persuade the many undecided voters, the voters who change and the moderates to vote. After all, congressional elections are about unknown candidates at the regional level – not a direct vote of the President of the United States.
Keyword: the most powerful parliament in the world
The Congress is the supreme legislative body of the United States and consists of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. The parliamentary work is carried out jointly with the House of Representatives and the Senate, the congress as a whole, in accordance with the constitution, being an opponent of the government.
the House of Representatives There are 435 MEPs aged at least 25 and US citizens at least seven years old. The chamber is re-elected every two years after the majority system and is the true representative body. States are represented differently according to their population, with each state sending at least one deputy. While Alaska has a mandate, California, the world's most populous, comes in at 53rd.
in the senate Each of the 50 states, regardless of size and population, is represented by two members elected for six years. One-third of these 100 senators are also elected every two years by majority vote. Originally, the Senate was a Landkammer who, like the Austrian Bundesrat, was indirectly determined. It was only in 1913 that the popular election of senators was introduced by an amendment to the Constitution.
435 deputies and 100 senators meet in both chambers of the congress. The entire House of Representatives is elected every two years – as well as two-thirds of the Senate. Again and again, it happens that parts of the term of the US President, one or even both Houses of Parliament, are forced to surrender to the competitor.
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