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Brussels. Twenty-two minutes after the midnight deadline, the defense of the Italian draft budget landed in the mailbox of the European Commission, but its content had not been doubted before: the coalition populist from right to left keeps his intention, next year 2, 4% and increase the structural deficit without being dissipated, although Italy is the second heaviest debt of the euro area. Critics of the Commission and the other 18 Finance Ministers of the Monetary Union have left Italian leaders cold. He is sticking to his plan to introduce both a minimum income and a tax reduction, that is to say, to increase expenses while reducing the costs. income.
In accordance with the rules of the Stability Pact, which were reconstituted in the wake of the Greek crisis and have since provided for fines to punish breaches of the common budgetary rules, a sanction procedure should now be initiated. The political climate in Europe could prevent that.
Rear wind for populists
Because this fight between Brussels and Rome does not take place in a vacuum. The coalition of the Left Five Star Movement and the Right Lega Movement deliberately provokes a conflict with the Union, which denounces them as undemocratic and presumptuous. "They were wrong to believe that they could impose fines on the Italian people," threatened Matteo Salvini, deputy head of government and chief of Lega, on RAI radio. Its calculations include the European elections of May 2019: whatever the decision made by the 18 other finance ministers on the basis of the Commission's proposals, whether for or against the government's budget plans, this will be the best material for Salvini's campaign.
The timetable set by the stability pact is the game of the populists. It includes many small procedural steps, each of which is suitable for warming the spirit of the people against "those of Brussels". Next Wednesday, the Commission will have to submit a report stating Italy's violation of the budgetary rules. At the end of November, envoys from the euro area finance ministries will evaluate them; they should share the badessment of the Commission. On the basis of this agreement, the Commission can again recommend the opening of an excessive deficit procedure. But this must be decided again by the finance ministers of the euro zone; This will be the earliest on December 3rd. Ten days later, the EU summits will be held and, although the European Council has no official role to play in European development policy, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will use this trip to Brussels to threaten him. Then, during the Christmas holidays and until Epiphany, the political machine is at a standstill, on January 21 at the earliest, the finance ministers of the euro area find themselves. At this meeting of the Eurogroup, they could decide on sanctions (that Italy could stop only by reverse qualified majority). But even in this case, Rome would have three months to rectify, that is to say up to a month before the European elections, when Salvini's right-wing allies would win in every corner of the country. ;Europe. A first fine against Italy would bring him gold.
("Die Presse", printed edition, 15.11.2018)
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