"Midterms": Why Trump has a lot at stake

Two years after his surprise victory, US President Donald Trump must pbad his first electoral test in the November 6th legislative elections. The result is expected with a lot of enthusiasm, but important consequences can not be ruled out.

Like many of his predecessors, he risks losing control of the US House of Representatives, whose 435 members are newly elected. Polls say a slim majority for Democrats. But in the Senate, Trump's Republicans could win.

Only 35 seats out of 100 in the smallest chamber of Parliament will be filled, senators having a six-year term. According to the electoral badysis site "Fivethirtyeight", the starting point for Democrats is as unfavorable as for any party before. The opposition party must defend 24 seats in the Senate, the ruling party only eight, plus two independent seats. Thus, 43 Republicans remain in the Senate, while Democrats start with 24 Senators on Election Day. According to forecasts, Republicans are more likely to extend their Senate majority by 51 seats than to lose it.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans have a majority of 236 to 191 seats. Surveys suggest that this report is likely to reverse in favor of Democrats, who should win about 40 seats. As both houses of Parliament are equal in the legislative process, Democrats already control the House of Representatives in order to block the ruling party's policies.

Many at stake

For the controversial right-wing populist president, the "Midterms" are a welcome change from the daily routine of the government. "Donald Trump is back where he feels best: in the election campaign," commented the USA Today daily on the president 's agitation, which wants to prevent the Democrats from winning the last two weeks of the election. election, with a presence of up to four per week.

In fact, Trump has a lot at stake. If Democrats regained control of Congress, the right-wing populist president should reduce his political agenda. "Democrats are up and determined to stop Trump from doing anything," said former chief strategist Steve Bannon.

The procedure of impeachment is not excluded

With a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, the hope of abolishing the hated health reform "Obamacare" would be lost forever. Trump should also abandon his prestige project of building a wall on the Mexican border. First and foremost, the sword of Damocles hovers over the indictment procedure in the Russian case, which could be initiated by the House of Representatives. The result would be a long and embarrbading trial in the Senate. It is unlikely that Trump will be removed from office, he can be removed from office only by a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

Traditionally, the turnout at the mid-term, with over a third of registered voters, is rather low, which was an advantage for the opposition party. Experts predict this time that participation could reach the level of presidential elections (about 50%). The democratic electoral base is considered particularly committed. After all, immediately after the electoral clash of 2016, the goal was "2018" in order to deceive the wings of Parliament in interim elections.

Trump already at full speed

The clashes around arch-conservative supreme judge Brett Kavanaugh also electrified Trump's supporters. The fact that Kavanaugh is caught on charges of badual abuse only with the shock and noise of the Senate could bring many Conservative voters to the polls. In the camp on the right, Kavanaugh is seen as a victim of a hunt on the left.

Trump launches into the election campaign on pithy sayings. He called the Democrats "a party of crimes" and accused them – given the candidacy of left-wing candidates known as the New Yorker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – for wanting to "impose" the United States on the United States. On Twitter, he also publishes statistics every hour, which should prove the magnitude of his government's economic success. "33 billion dollars" have saved the Americans since 2017, by "superfluous regulations were abolished". And thereby attaches as a success to the flags that, under his presidency, the national health insurance premiums "Obamacare" had fallen – not to mention that he actually wanted to abolish the hated project, and by there even the resistance of the deputies own party had failed.