Oil prices down: that's how it will continue in 2019 with Brent | 28/11/18

On Friday, oil prices dipped by 30%. He had looked much better during the year 2018 for the black gold. The recent drop in prices is also a warning to JPMorgan's experts.

Last month, the Brent Brude price dropped by about a third. This means that all margins realized since January have been stabilized and that the price of oil has decreased by about 8% compared to the previous year.

JPMorgan lowers oil price forecasts

Given the current market environment, the experts at the US bank JPMorgan have their expectations regarding price developments. oil adjusted significantly downward. As reported by CNBC, Scott Darling, head of oil and gas operations for the Asia-Pacific region, expects the price of Brent crude to reach about $ 73 in 2019. Up until then commodity expert was still at $ 83.50 a barrel. However, this forecast was made before prices fell last Friday.

Darling's much more pessimistic expectations are particularly explained by the unstable relationship between supply and demand. He is currently seeing an oversupply, which is expected to continue over the next year. As a result, Darling does not see any air for the year 2020. In about two years, prices are set at about 64 dollars a barrel. Thus, the price of Brent would evolve laterally compared to the current level.

OPEC plans support reasoning

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently announced an increase in production in early 2019. For Darling, confirmation of its predictions that demand for oil would continue to weaken. "The OPEC is expected to reduce its oil output by 1.2 million barrels a day over the next few years to catch up with the oil market," predicts the expert.

In addition, other factors have a negative effect on the price of oil: the US President Trump, for example, has always pronounced in favor of a fall in oil prices, putting pressure on exporting countries. Last week, the President of the White House thanked the Saudi oil and gas giant for its expansion of oil production: "Oil prices are falling, it's great! It's like a big reduction in oil prices. tax for the United States and the world. […] Thanks to Saudi Arabia, but let's go further! ", Said the head of state via Twitter.

And Trump himself had his share in the oil price drop: the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, the OPEC country, were less severe than had been expected many experts.

Editors finanzen.at