"Reduce Prices Now!" | Telepolis

Trump tries to influence the price of oil

Mid-term elections are held in the United States in November. If the economy continues to grow as before, the Republicans, the party of outgoing President Donald Trump, are in a good starting position. However, there are risks that could jeopardize this growth. One of them is the price of oil. If it increases too much compared to other factors, not only will the cost of living for many consumers increase, but the cost of production of many companies will increase, which will tend to weaken their competitiveness.

So far, however, the US economy shows no sign that the price of oil, which has risen from 30 to nearly $ 80 per standard barrel of 159 liters since 2016, is higher as other factors that stimulate the US economy. If this remains the case, if the price of oil continues to rise, however, is open. It could therefore continue to rise, as the global economy is currently growing at an average rate of 4% – and with it the demand for oil is increasing. In addition, US President Donald Trump has rejected the nuclear deal with the major Iranian oil country and has again put in place trade sanctions. This reduces the supply on the world market.

The Saudis as Recipients of the Sanctions Against Iran

One of the powers interested in these trade sanctions against Iran is the Sunni regional power in power in Saudi Arabia, which rivals the Shia theocracy. Trump apparently directed a tweet to this country and its allied Gulf states (with the exception of Qatar) on July 4, warning that the OPEC monopoly must "remember that the prices of gasoline have increased and it is useless. "If anything," he continues, "they drive up prices, while the United States defends many of its members for very little dollars, but the road must be pbadable on both tracks." And in capital letters, he added: "REDUCE PRICES NOW!"

The previous weekend, Trump had told the public that he "had just spoken to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and told him that [er] because of troubles and unrest in Iran and in Venezuela Saudi Arabia would increase its oil production, perhaps up to 2 million barrels to compensate for this. " So, according to Trump, the Saudi king had accepted. To what extent an agreement likely to be actually expressed will have practical consequences is another issue.

Venezuela

This opinion is at least Beat Wittmann's financial services provider Porta Advisors. He told CNBC that even if the Saudis not only made a vain promise and really increased their production, it could take a long time for more oil to come onto the market. "You can," said Wittmann in a graphic comparison, "not order two million barrels [Öl] as if you were ordering a coffee somewhere." Among others, it plays a role that Saudi Arabia has already increased its flow of 10.3 and 10.7 million barrels a day last month and can promote a maximum of twelve million barrels.

Two other key suppliers of raw materials that could produce more oil are Venezuela and Russia. In Venezuela, last year 's production fell by nearly 650,000 barrels. Due to suboptimal production and living conditions in Venezuela, Trump reportedly asked his staff for a recent (unconfirmed) rumor in the US media that a military operation was worth it. Such regime change operations were conducted in the past by former Republican President George W. Bush and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. With limited success, the conservative columnist Ann Coulter sarcastically recalled yesterday when she said that a military operation in Venezuela would make more sense than a military operation in Afghanistan .

Russia

In Russia, the question of such a march does not arise because of the military capability of nuclear energy. For this, Trump could try to persuade the Russian president to increase the volume of production during a personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Finnish capital Helsinki on July 16 (see Trump wants to meet Putin in Helsinki July 16).

Russia is more interested in a higher oil price than the price of oil, which is why the US president should offer something in return, for example by easing sanctions, but reported it to the end of May. the willingness to settle for 60 dollars a barrel, said Mr Putin at a conference in St. Petersburg. In the fall, the Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov CNBC even said that he was only waiting 40 dollars a barrel for the next few years.
( Peter Muehlbauer )