Territorial election in Hesse: no destiny – or is it?

No, in Hesse, the future of the Great Coalition is not decided, according to Berlin. The impact will have the result at the federal level, however – no matter what it looks like.

By Birgit Schmeitzner, ARD-Hauptstadtstudio

With CDU and SPD, nervousness in front of the Hessenwahl is great. How does the result in the fifth largest federal state affect the grand coalition? The anxious question is quite understandable. In the previous poll conducted by Infratest dimap before the elections, half of those surveyed said that Sunday's elections were a good opportunity to teach GroKo parties a lesson.

SPD leader Andrea Nahles is clearly calm these days. She points out that elections in Hesse are not a "decisive choice" – neither for the Great Coalition nor for itself. Chancellor and leader of the CDU, Angela Merkel, made similar remarks. She finds that it is wrong to "define each state election as a small federal election". And yet, if the parties of the two main Bayern politicians are defeated again, it could create a unique momentum within the federal government.

Deselection of Bouffier – Signal against Merkel

Prime Minister Volker Bouffier is considered a confidant close to the Federal Chancellor. Its number of polls is rather clear – better than those with which Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder has run in the elections. According to Bouffier, he and the Hesse State Association are responsible for "the appearance of the GroKo at the federal level".

It may well be that the politician of the CDU has to resign from his position as head of government, possibly his former deputy, Tarek Al-Wazir, of the Greens. According to pollster and political scientist Thorsten Faas of the FU Berlin, it would be "water on the mills of criticism of the Union". With the result that is likely to accelerate Merkel's transition to a successor.

Dynamic before the congress of the electoral party of the CDU

In this scenario, the CDU board review would be the next opportunity to define the course. The leadership of the party will prepare the elections of 4 and 5 November in early December, in which Angela Merkel will present.

At the moment, there are only three opponents comparatively unknown. A bad result in Hesse could bring more and more known politicians of the CDU to dare to cover themselves – to prevent the "farther" and solidify it so fast, nothing with a revival. The "cohesion" of the Chancellor, believes in any case the political scientist Thorsten Faas. According to him, the secretary general Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is slightly ahead in the race for potential successors.

Fragile mood in the SPD

In the SPD, calls for renewal are much stronger than in the Union. And the survival of the grand coalition is more questioned. The restructuring of the party leadership in March only temporarily appeased critics. For the leader of the party, Andrea Nahles, this position is uncomfortable.

In addition, he is weakened by the hiccups around the chairman of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Hans-Georg Maaßen. This Nahles had initially accepted a promotion of Maaßen, he is taken from many to the base resentment. Following the motto: again demonstrated by the CSU.

According to political scientist Faas, dealing with Maaßen has become a symbol. This "harmed SPD leadership because it cost credibility".

Suicide for fear of death?

If the top Hessian candidate Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel gets a bad result, it should make the criticism of GroKo's continuation undeniable. It would then be conceivable for the SPD to grant a grace period and provide the conditions for remaining in the government – to be implemented within a reasonable period of time.

A blow and a new election could drag the SPD. And SPD Bayern's point of view shows that some of the opposition is not recovering automatically.

The problem of credibility

Political scientist Thorsten Faas sees another danger for the SPD: an exit from GroKo would also mean the end of party leadership. So, after the euphoric Schulz train and the crash after the federal election, the change has changed again. In addition, there is currently no alternative for staff. Faas does not believe that the party can rebuild its credibility.

Lack of credibility is usually a problem of the grand coalition: voters perceive less the political decisions of the Union and the SPD than the disputed image of the coalition. According to Faas, they do not exactly breathe mutual trust, they do not treat each other with respect. This reinforces the impression that the government has detached itself from the problems and problems of the citizens.

Turbulent times

That it comes in the aftermath of the Hessian election to a big bang in Berlin, is unlikely. It is clear that the two parties – CDU and SPD – can not win, and that the decision of 4.4 million Hessen eligible will strengthen the momentum at the federal level. It is also clear that with regard to the high-altitude flight of the Greens, the resurgence of the FDP and the arrival of the AfD in the last of the 16 state parliaments, the former principles obviously do not apply more.

Society is becoming more and more heterogeneous, as evidenced by the party landscape. The new constellations with new names – see the "papaya coalition" in Bavaria – are the new norm.