The EU warns of a disaster – 4 facts about the state of negotiations

The clock is relentless. The European Union and the British government are still spending eighteen months in order to make Brexit as lightly as possible.

However, concerns are growing in Brussels that it will not work. On Thursday, the European Commission issued a document warning its member states, among other things, to prepare for all possible scenarios of Brexit.

The Worst Case : Britain leaves without an exit agreement and EU follow-up agreement. With the so-called non-deal scenarios threaten the economy in the British Isles and on the continent the worst consequences.

The state of negotiations on Brexit – in four facts in a nutshell.

1. The Doomsday Theorem:

► Brussels and London want to ensure an orderly British outing. But a European Commission document states that citizens, businesses and member states must be prepared for all eventualities.

► A threatening phrase follows in bold: "Preparations must be at all levels be accelerated immediately and consider all possible outcomes."

► This is the Announcement of the worst case . Without a withdrawal agreement, there would be no transition period. Britain would be a third country for the EU countries. Border controls, tariffs – and therefore significant economic damage would be the result.

► According to a study by the British government, the country's economy would shrink by 8% over the next 15 years . According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, German carmakers would then receive [2.359 millions] 2.35 billion euros in additional customs fees . In 2016, Germany exported cars worth 20.8 billion euros.

. 2 Flirting with the White Paper

► In order to avoid trade barriers as much as possible, the British government published a white paper. It is there that Britain's relationship is initially negotiated – with the free temporary movement of people for business travelers and with different duty rates for goods destined for the United Kingdom or at the EU.

► Up to now, Brussels has not commented on this. The problem for EU diplomats is that the white paper is superfluous until the withdrawal of the EU is regulated, as shown by the statements of European diplomats.

► We murmur in camera in Brussels. EU diplomats view the white paper as a new attempt by Britain to seek EU profits, reports Politico magazine, based in Brussels. Pecking raisins, as the negotiators call them.

► "Spiegel Online" quotes an EU diplomat who criticizes the White Paper because it was meant for the post-Brexit relationship: "But we are currently negotiating the withdrawal agreement. "

3. The old problem:

► In the withdrawal agreement, London and Brussels determine how much money the British government still has to transfer to the EU. Between 40 and 45 million euros, the bill of goodbye will probably be.

► It must also solve a problem that has long affected the negotiations on Brexit: the status of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

► The problem is that Ireland is part of the EU, Northern Ireland part of the United Kingdom. At present, there is no border control – and according to the EU and the UK government, this should be the case.

► How to avoid a "hard line" is still not clear. "We need insurance for all times," EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said Thursday.

► The Irish government decided on Wednesday to take a number of concrete steps to prepare for the no-deal scenario. In any case, the EU country will need 600 to 700 additional customs agents for checks in ports and airports, 200 experts for the control of imports and exports of animals and plants and 120 others to issue the necessary certificates. A new meeting: