US Midterms: the suburbs decide midterms

There are many "battlegrounds" – electoral districts where the race will remain open until polling day, November 6th. However, they decide if the Democrats manage to change the balance of power in both houses of Congress. If this were to succeed in the Senate, it would be a real sensation, because many of the seats currently occupied by the "red" Democrats, and therefore essentially Republican states, are available for the elections.

In the House of Representatives, which is re-elected every two years, the chances of eliminating the majority of President Donald Trump's Republicans are real. The races are the most open in the sprawling suburbs. The suburbs, the embodiment of the beautiful life in the United States until today, is home to the middle clbad.

Women against badet

Here, Democrats, especially in "red" states, where Hillary Clinton has already reached the majority in the 2016 presidential election, are hoping for significant gains. The Democrats must win 25 seats to win the majority of the "Grand Old Party" (GOP, Republicans, note). With nearly 50 seats, the races are considered open – most are currently organized by Republicans. Twenty-five of the 50 competing constituencies were won by Clinton two years ago. A similar result – baduming the Democrats occupy their own seats – would be enough to win the majority in the Chamber of Deputies.

Democrats could benefit from one of the most important reasons for their supporters here: their dislike of Trump. This is particularly pronounced among women, especially the most educated. Not only are they particularly enraged by the misogyny and lascivious statements of Trump, but they also reject his policy of splitting and marginalization more than men.

The disgust is probably reinforced by the behavior of Trump and the Republicans by the badual harbadment alleged by the new Supreme Judge Brett Kavanaugh, composed of many voters. Republican election strategists would turn to the suburbs with concern, the Washington Post recently reported.

White men often disagree

The male electorate in the suburbs, however, has a tendency toward Trump. According to surveys, economic problems are crucial for male graduates, the New York Times recently reported. This electoral group was – in addition to men without college – in 2016 already one of the most important for Trump. And that's even more true in the Republican suburban ridings.

This group has particularly benefited from the recent economic recovery. In addition to the rapid rise in stock prices, it was particularly the tax reform, which benefited above average wealthy white people.

Boy uncertainty factor

From a demographic point of view, the boys are still particularly interesting this time around. They could, so hope on the democratic side, shift the current weight of power. Of course, we do not know how many of them actually vote. In any case, as many people as ever have registered for the mid-term elections, where the participation rate is traditionally lower than that of the presidential elections. This year, however, one could generally reach a long-term peak, as suggested by at least surveys. However, boys traditionally choose much less than older people. However, this time, there are also many young candidates, which could motivate more young people under 30 to vote, was last speculated in the US media.

There is a lot at stake for Trump

In general, interim elections serve electors to settle their accounts according to the president's policy. If Republicans lose a majority in the House of Representatives, it will be much more difficult for Trump to implement his program. In addition, Trump and his party fear that Democrats can not launch numerous investigations against Trump himself and his government.

This could not only poison the climate between the two sides, but could also hurt Trump's chances of re-election and those of Republicans by 2020. Conversely, if Republicans hold the majority in both chambers, it's a sign for Trump to continue his agenda more quickly – and a severe defeat for Democrats.

Distracting

So it's no coincidence that Trump has been campaigning intensively for weeks and is not afraid of further radicalizing his language and strategy – distracting him with provocative statements and unpleasant announcements. In the face of Kavanaugh's fierce fight against the Trump defeats against the Democratic candidates, his threats against Russia and his statements about the movement of migrants in Mexico, it is almost forgotten that the President suffered strong pressures in September.

For example, through new revelations and first convictions during the investigation of Russia's Special Investigator Robert Mueller and an open letter from a senior White House official who keenly criticized the behavior of Chaos and Trump.

Against recipe "Obamacare"

The Democrats did not find an effective recipe against the way Trump provoked fear and rage with false statements and lies, and thus inspired his electorate even after two years. The most promising content is the offensive defense of the most important national achievement of Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama: the obligation of Medicare. This is indeed the central theme of most democratic election campaigns. Because on "Obamacare" now want to vote many Republican voters are no longer.