Who and what and how to vote Tuesday in the United States «DiePresse.com

In the United States, the mood is on the rise. Because on November 6, congressional elections, also called mid-term elections, take place. For weeks, US President Donald Trump traveled to the United States to mobilize his electorate, pacing up and down the migration, announcing his intention to send up to 15,000 troops to the border. .

There is a lot at stake for him. Why? The most important questions and answers.

What is chosen in mid-term elections?

The members of the congress are November 6th. Congress is the supreme legislative body of the United States. It is composed of two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Every two years, US citizens vote for the entire House of Representatives, while the Senate only votes on one-third of senators.

in the House of Representatives, real parliamentary representation, states being represented differently according to their population, each state sends at least one of the 435 deputies: while Alaska has a mandate, California, the most populated, has 53 deputies.

in the senate Each of the 50 states is represented by two members, regardless of their size and population. However, Senators are only available for elections every six years. As a result, only one-third of the 100 senators are elected in the mid-term elections. The six-year term gives senators additional political weight and independence, as well as continuity in the Senate.

In addition, on November 6, we will find 36 of the 50 US states. of the governorSo, vote for the country chiefs instead.

Why are congressional elections so important?

According to the constitution, the Congress, with its two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate, is the antagonist of the government – and therefore of the president: for a law to come into force, the House of Representatives and the Senate must hear. Admittedly, the Head of State may sometimes encounter headwinds from representatives of his own parties on contentious legal issues. But it will be really problematic for the president, if the opposition to the mid-term elections, the majority.

And it's almost an ironic law of American politics: voters regularly name their president in Congress two years after his nomination. The mid-term elected catastrophe is Bill Clinton's first interim election. The Southern Democratic Party, elected in 1992 as a young hope and with a majority in both houses of Congress, manifested itself politically as early as 1994. The Democrats lost eight senators and 54 deputies to the Republicans' advantage. opposition, which conquered the House of Representatives for the first time since 1952.

In the worst case, the president has a majority of opposition in both houses. In political jargon, the president then becomes the "lame duck", the "lame duck". In this case, the President can only negatively influence the legislative process – that is, with the veto of legislative decisions being blocked. That's what Barack Obama has done in the last two years. He became a "lame duck" and relied on the controversial strategy of circumventing the Congress through decrees.

The Senate is particularly powerful: without its approval, the president can not ratify international treaties and appeal to high-level judges and government officials. In addition, the illustrious body may decide to dismiss the president.

What are the chances of Democrats at this year's election?

Two years after his surprise victory, US President Donald Trump now faces his first electoral test. And like its predecessors, it also has an "anti-government effect", but probably only in the House of Representatives.

Because according to the election badysis page "Fivethirtyeight" is the starting position for
the democrats in the senate unfavorable as never before. The probability of the party conquering the Senate is therefore only 18%. Because Democrats must defend 24 seats in the Senate (as many acting senators are candidates for re-election), Republicans are only eight, in addition to two independent seats. Thus, 43 Republicans remain in the Senate, while Democrats only start with 24 senators safely represented on polling day.

in the House of Representatives Republicans currently have a majority of 236 to 191 seats. However, according to "Fivethirtyeight", it is about 84% sure that Democrats will regain the upper hand. Because both houses of parliament have equal rights in the legislative process, Democrats already control the House of Representatives in order to block republican politics.

What do we make the difference?

Turnout is crucial: typically only four in ten US citizens vote in mid-term elections. This has always been a benefit to the opposition party in the past. Experts predict this time that participation could reach the level of presidential elections (about 50%).

The democratic electoral base is considered particularly committed. After all, immediately after the 2016 electoral clash, she was aiming "2018" to reduce Trump's parliamentary wing during the interim election. It is not for nothing that the president makes an effort to put himself in a good mood against the "crime party", as he calls it, during his appearances in the countryside. Even incidents such as the Pittsburgh synagogue attack and the series of bady traps do not prevent it from further encouraging its followers.

What is the issue for Donald Trump?

In fact, Trump has a lot at stake. If Democrats regained control of Congress, the right-wing populist president would have to reduce his political agenda. "Democrats are up and determined to stop Trump from doing anything," said former chief strategist Steve Bannon.

With a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, the hope of abolishing the hated health reform "Obamacare" would be lost forever. Trump should also abandon his prestige project of building a wall on the Mexican border. First and foremost, the sword of Damocles hovers over the indictment procedure in the Russian case, which could be initiated by the House of Representatives. The result would be a long and embarrbading trial in the Senate. It is unlikely that Trump will be removed from office, he can be removed from office only by a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

(APA / red).