Bad astronomy | Astronomers predicted a large sunspot before it became visible



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A new respectably large sunspot has rotated in sight on the face of the Sun, which would be interesting in any case since the Sun has been very calm for years. But what makes it even more remarkable is that solar scientists predicted that it would happen, even when that place was on the other side of the Sun!

Sunspots are regions on the Sun’s surface of intense magnetic force. Normally, huge packages of ionized gas (called plasma) inside the Sun rise from the inside due to their heat, and when they reach the surface, they cool down and fall back. This is pretty much what happens when you heat a pot of soup (I think it’s liquid, not plasma).

But if the magnetic field integrated in this plasma becomes tangled when it reaches the surface, the package cools but cannot descend. It persists, and since it’s colder than the surrounding material, it looks dark: a sunspot.

In addition, the Sun goes through cycles of magnetic activity, which manifest themselves in an increasing and decreasing number of sunspots over time. It goes from minimum to maximum and comes back to a minimum over about 11 years. Cycle 24, the last, ended last year and cycle 25 started in September 2019.

A few dots appeared on the Sun, but on November 23, a new one peeked over the western edge of the Sun, rotating to appear. It was already a decent size, which means it formed on the other side of the Sun, which we cannot see from Earth.

But that doesn’t mean that scientists have no idea what’s going on there. In fact, they’re getting pretty good at predicting what’s going on on the other side of the Sun. They knew this place was there long before we could see it.

This is because of a field called helioseismology. On Earth, seismic waves are sound waves (more technically acoustic waves) that travel across the Earth. By measuring them, we can understand what the deep interior of the Earth looks like (this is how we know there are layers like the core and mantle there).

The same with the sun. All the furious activity on the surface of the Sun and at the bottom of it creates acoustic waves that move. As they do, the surface of the Sun vibrates like a drum. By measuring these vibrations very carefully, scientists can now only tell what is going on inside the Sun, but also on his other side.

The magnetic fields permeating the Sun interfere with these waves, and can therefore also affect what is seen. This is how scientists knew this place – called Active Region 12786 – was coming. The signal for this first appeared on November 14, but it was weak and not big enough to ground claims. But it grew quickly, and in just one day it was big enough to be considered a solid detection.

And of course, on November 23, it became visible when the Sun’s rotation of about a month slowly brought it into view from Earth.

The spot itself is approximately 40 to 50,000 kilometers in diameter. It’s easily three times the size of the Earth! If you threw the Earth right side up, it wouldn’t even touch the sides.

To be clear, this kind of prediction has already been made several times; Just a few weeks later, they predicted the active region 12781, which was visible on the sun after it rotated. What makes this new cooler is that the sun is so quiet that 12786’s signal was very clear, and it’s a big spot. We don’t usually see one this big until a new cycle begins. I wouldn’t read too much about it just yet; the sun is mercurial* and it can be difficult to know what it does in a given cycle.

But this sort of thing is important to know. Magnetic fields on the Sun can get quite fiery, and they store a lot of energy. This can be released in huge explosions called solar flares, and even larger ones called coronal mas ejections. These two elements can cause real damage to satellites orbiting the Earth and cause widespread blackouts on the Earth’s surface (they can create vast flows of electricity below the surface, called geomagnetically induced currents, which put a lot of pressure on generators and power distribution).

I happened to see the spots for AR 12781 about a week ago, and another group (AR 12783) just the other day; I have a pair of solar binoculars specially designed for looking at the sun. DO NOT never look at the sun without the proper help, especially using things like binoculars or telescopes, unless you know what you are doing. And even then, you have to be very, very careful, unless frying your retina and boiling vitreous humor in your eyes are desired results.

Instead, you can view current observations of the Sun from NASA’s SOHO online, including the visible light image. Another good site is Solar Monitor, as well as current images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory.

And remember: the Sun may seem familiar and friendly, but it is actually a ball of boiling nuclear-powered plasma over a million kilometers in diameter, and its magnetic field can literally connect. to ours even more than 150 million kilometers away. We rely on him for warmth and light, but we absolutely have to keep an eye on him in case he decides to throw our way a little more.


*Lol! To have!

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