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Parts of California are likely to face a new home support order, possibly later this week, as coronavirus cases explode statewide and public health experts warn hospitals could running out of intensive care beds by the end of the year.
In a particularly sober briefing Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom said without further public health interventions and if the pandemic continues to escalate at its current rate, the state will reach intensive care capacity by mid-December and will be overcapacity by Christmas Eve.
The terrible forecast came on the last day of California’s worst month yet in the pandemic. And December will likely be even darker as cases multiply during and after the holidays, public health officials and politicians have said.
“Red flags are flying in terms of trajectory in our growth projections,” Newsom said. “If these trends continue, we will have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic, action.”
California reported more than 21,200 cases on Monday, a new record for the state, although it includes a multi-day backlog of cases from the long holiday weekend. The Bay Area also reported a new record of more than 2,300 cases, some also outstanding.
The state reported, on average, more than 9,900 cases per day in November, nearly triple the rate in October and well above the previous monthly record of 8,700 cases per day in July, according to an analysis of the data of the Chronicle. Over the past week, the average has risen to almost 14,000 cases per day.
Cases in the Bay Area also reached record levels in November, reaching an average of 1,154 per day. The previous high was 1,061 per day in August, at the height of the summer surge. The region reported just 480 cases per day on average in October.
Public health officials expect a further increase in cases in the next week or two, linked to Thanksgiving gatherings and vacation travel. About 10% of people who test positive for the coronavirus end up in hospital, according to public health experts. Thus, the expected increase in cases will put additional pressure on hospitals that already feel strained.
California and the Bay Area currently have a record number of hospital patients for COVID-19 – 7,787 and 820, respectively, on Sunday. These numbers have almost tripled in the past month.
And in a press briefing from his home in Sacramento, where Newsom is in quarantine with his family after three of his children were exposed to the virus, the governor provided a disturbing forecast for state hospitals.
Currently, about 60% of all beds are occupied, about one in 10 with COVID-19 patients, and that will climb to 78% by December 24. It doesn’t sound too much of a concern. But there are far fewer intensive care beds.
About 75% of the intensive care unit beds are currently occupied, nearly a quarter of which are with COVID-19 patients. The state will be at 112% of its capacity by December 24. The forecast is even bleaker for some areas: Rural counties in northern California are expected to run out of intensive care beds this week or next and the San Joaquin Valley by mid-December. The Bay Area is said to be in overcapacity in early January, according to state forecasts.
“The high number of cases that we have seen over the past week and the past 10 days have yet to even begin to impact hospitals,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Secretary of Health and Human Resources. Social Services, at Monday’s briefing. “Cases now turn into hospitalizations in two weeks, and from there a number of these people will need intensive care: specialized space, specialized equipment and specialized personnel.
Newsom did not provide details on what a new shelter-in-place order would look like or which counties it would affect. Ghaly hinted that this would likely impact the counties that experience the greatest pressure on intensive care unit capacity. More than 99% of the state’s population belongs to the most restrictive purple level – 51 of 58 counties. San Francisco and San Mateo counties moved there on Saturday, leaving Marin the only county in the Bay Area in the less restrictive red level.
A new order, Newsom said, would be “more in line with the stay-at-home order that people were aware of at the start of this year” in March. He said state officials started talking to county health officials a day or two before Thanksgiving about new restrictions that may better slow California’s skyrocketing.
“We’re trying to be a lot more specific, more surgical and more prescriptive” with new orders, Newsom said, adding details would be available soon. “It’s a dynamic week. An incredibly important week. We will post additional information, additional recommendations, in the very, very near future. “
Some counties have already surpassed the state’s plan for purple level restrictions. A Los Angeles County order put in place Monday banned most gatherings. Santa Clara County, which has reported an alarming number of hospitalizations over the past week, issued an aggressive new order on Saturday that significantly limits indoor capacity and requires inbound travelers to self-quarantine for two weeks.
Several Bay Area health workers have said they support the Santa Clara County move and will consider similar orders for their own counties if the numbers continue to worsen. In an interview on CNN on Monday, Dr. Sara Cody, chief health officer for Santa Clara County, said that as her local hospital beds fill up, she is appealing for state and even federal restrictions.
The county reported 289 people hospitalized with COVID-19 on Sunday – the highest number to date in the pandemic, and more than double the number of just two weeks ago. About a quarter of these patients are in intensive care.
“We are taking local action to reduce the prevalence, and hope we have bold state and country action to support us,” Cody said.
After being moved to the purple level on Saturday, San Francisco and San Mateo counties shut down many domestic operations, including church services, museums and cinemas. San Mateo County has put an end to indoor dining, the latest in the Bay Area to do so. The two counties were also subject to a state curfew starting at 10 p.m. Monday.
Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, said she was disappointed the museum was forced to close due to the new restrictions, but she understands the reasoning. And she said she was supporting other targeted measures to slow the spread of the disease in the community.
The forecast for the state’s supply of intensive care beds was particularly worrying, she said. “We look great for the capacity of the ICU – right now. But the virus is growing exponentially, so it can very quickly exceed its capacity, ”she said.
Newsom shared a few bright spots in its otherwise dismal briefing, including the fact that California will receive 327,000 doses of the first coronavirus vaccine in the coming weeks.
This will be the state’s first tranche of coronavirus vaccines, developed by Pfizer and German company BioNTech. Pfizer applied for federal approval earlier this month and is expected to receive approval generally in December.
The first hundreds of thousands of doses will go to healthcare workers, but the state’s vaccine committee is still determining which of those workers will be prioritized, Newsom said. There are approximately 2.4 million healthcare workers in California.
San Francisco Chronicle editors Alexei Koseff and Catherine Ho contributed to this report.
Erin Allday is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @erinallday
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