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Hospitalizations from COVID-19 continue to climb across California, and in the Bay Area, the number of hospitalized patients with severe cases exceeded 1,000 for the first time since mid-February.
The increase in the delta probably hasn’t peaked here yet, and as with previous increases, we know that the number of hospitalizations tends to be several weeks behind the increase in the number of cases. . There were 1,040 confirmed and suspected COVID patients in Bay Area hospitals on Tuesday, up from 987 on Monday, state data showed. This is the first time hospitalizations have exceeded 1,000 since Feb. 16, when the winter wave died down and there were 1,008 people in Bay Area hospitals.
Due to the high vaccination rates, the number of people who have died from COVID infections appears to be lower, but the actual death rate we are currently seeing for the Delta variant in the region is not yet clear. Since July 2, 112 people have died from COVID in the Bay Area; statewide, 1,030 died during the same period.
Of the 1,040 currently hospitalized in the Bay Area, 240 are in intensive care beds, or 23%. It is not known how many people hospitalized have been fully vaccinated, although doctors have noted anecdotally that the majority are not vaccinated, and those who are fully vaccinated tend to be elderly and have underlying conditions that lead to more serious cases.
The number of hospitalizations has steadily increased across California since early July, a few weeks after June 15, when bars, restaurants, gyms and cinemas were all able to fully reopen and abandon mandates. mask. SFist noted on July 2 that hospitalizations were already on the rise, and by the end of July it was clear that the Delta variant had changed the math around reopening – leading the CDC to issue a national recommendation on July 27 that the masks remain inside even for the vaccinated. .
Breakthrough infections remain possible among vaccinees – and with vaccinees infecting vaccinees – even more with the Delta variant, although the exact numbers remain unclear. As The New York Times reports today, the CDC does not fully track breakthrough infections and their results, so exact numbers will remain hard to come by – too, with the wide availability of home tests and the likelihood that these infections will be. benign, many of them are probably not recorded.
“A modest percentage of people who are fully vaccinated will still get COVID-19 if exposed to the virus that causes it,” CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said in an email to The Times.
For the anecdote around San Francisco, this translated into the fact that many people working in the service industry and / or traveling this summer fell ill – or tested positive and exhibited one or more symptoms – over the past few weeks. And that led a coalition of Bay Area health workers to issue a warrant for masks indoors from August 2, with compliance being hit and miss and relying on companies to monitor policy.
“I think if we started testing random people on the street, we would find a lot more people who test positive,” Stanford infectious disease specialist Dr Abraar Karan told The Times.
What is true, even with the most infectious variant, is that vaccines work to prevent serious illness and death. And California’s comparatively high vaccination rate compared to Florida was born out of the number of hospitalizations there compared to here during this outbreak.
But with as many viruses as they seem to be circulating in the Bay Area now, anyone can guess when this surge will peak and start to decline, sending fewer people to hospital. As the Chronicle reported last week, the best guess appears to be early to mid-September.
San Francisco’s seven-day moving average of new daily cases edged down last week – reaching 263 on August 3, from 272 a day earlier. But it is far from clear whether the city has reached its peak.
Previously: Put your masks back on all over the interior in Bay Area – Health workers seek to alleviate Delta surge
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