Wages increase faster than labor productivity, what is dangerous? The analyst's forecast

In May, in its report, the National Bank noted that real incomes available in the country are growing faster than labor productivity. According to May statistics, the average salary since January increased by 13.4% and rose to 943.9 rubles. But productivity, according to the latest data from April, rose by 5.2%. What is the danger of such a gap?

– In general, throughout 2018 real wages, by month of reporting, show an increase of 13.3-13.8%, and labor productivity of 5-5.9%. The gap between real wage growth rates and labor productivity growth rates was highlighted in the second half of 2017 and rose significantly in 2018, says Zhanna Kulakova, a financial consultant at TeleTrade. – This is fraught with the acceleration of inflation.

– But at the end of May, we see that the annual inflation indicator has updated the historical minimum and decreased to a rating of 4.4%.

– This was affected by seasonality, as well as the fact that housing and communal services, travel and other administratively regulated fares did not increase in May. In addition, the situation of rapid wage growth is mitigated by the fact that other components of the population's income – pensions, benefits, income from entrepreneurship, and so on. – increase much more slowly. By comparison, real incomes of Belarussians increased by 7.4% in January-April and real wages by 13.3%.

There is already a productivity gap, so the financial market has not yet suffered serious negative consequences.

Nevertheless, this factor can not be ignored, and the current state of affairs gives reason to believe that in the second half of the year the inflation will accelerate somewhat in Belarus. Most likely, it will remain in the 6% forecast, but it is not necessary to rely on conquering new historical lows. Prices will rise slightly faster than now.

– What are the dangers for the foreign exchange market? We are used to the fact that after the artificial growth of wages, the dollar goes up in price, and after him the prices.

– Yes, the growth of real wages creates risks for the foreign exchange market. First, because people are starting to buy more imported products, which means that companies can increase the volume of foreign currency purchases to pay for imports.

Secondly, because the negative expectations of the Belorussians remain high. extra "money to buy money for savings." It should also be taken into account that the loans have significantly decreased, the Belarusians are actively borrowing from banks for the needs of consumers and send these funds back to the banks. purchase, including imported goods.In addition, due to the growth of wages and cheap loans for many, it is no longer necessary to sell old currency, that is, say that part of the population will reduce currency sales.and this is a pressure factor on the Belarusian ruble rate.At present, the "currency surplus" still remains on the domestic foreign exchange market, but their volumes have decreased considerably compared to the previous year, so that from January to May 2018, the population, businesses and non-residents together sold $ 424 million net $ 1,049 million for the same period from the previous year

. there is also the state (the funds are needed to serve the foreign exchange debt), reducing the currency "surplus" – a negative process for our economy as a whole and for the ruble exchange rate in particular.

– On the other hand, we are very dependent on Russia. seems to be the growth of the economy? 9659004] – An additional risk factor is the fact that since April the Belarusian ruble has been strengthened to Russian by more than 7%, the Russian exchange rate in our market has fallen from comfortable 3.4-3.5 at 3,15-3,20 – this, by the way, a year and a half minimum. For this reason, exports to Russia may decrease, and imports from Russia, respectively, will increase. As a result, a change in the balance between the demand and supply of foreign exchange on the domestic market and a certain weakening of the Belarusian ruble. We can say that there is a risk of "delayed" reaction of the Belarusian ruble to anti-Russian sanctions – in fact, our market has not yet won them.