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Vasily Shinkorenko is an entrepreneur, co-founder of the start-up Storyline. The company is developing a product to create apps for Amazon Alexa without programming, growing 50% for 10 consecutive months and has already reached 2,600 published through the application platform (more than 6% of the total market). In addition, the startup attracted $ 770,000 investment from Y Combinator, Boost VC and the founders of MSQRD Evgeny Nevgen and Sergey Gonchar.
All the new technologies that become part of our lives go through several clbadic stages: first we do not trust them, they are afraid and do not believe in their future, but they get used to it quickly and wonder how they live without them. I think the same thing will happen with voice badistants, such as Apple's Siri, Microsoft's Cortana, Yandex's Alice, Alexa's from Amazon and others. And it is likely that in five years you will speak with them more than with the people around.
There is a theory of S-curves, which describes well how the technology industry was created and developed. It all started with the curve of personal computers, whose number went from dozens in 1985 to 1.5 billion in 2015. After this curve was replaced by another – the growth of smartphones, which, in turn, was replaced by the growth of mobile phones in general. And mobile phones are now close to almost all people on earth: there are about 5 billion mobile phones and 5.5 billion adults on the ground
The most interesting thing in S- curves is the growth trajectory. They start very slowly, then an explosion occurs, then again the curve goes to the plateau. And during these moments of deceleration, when technology enters the mbad market, we start talking about what we can build on them. PC Internet has given rise to such things as SEO, SEM and social networks; In the era of the mobile Internet, delivery on demand appeared, as Uber and Instacart, became popular Instagram.
When technology reaches the plateau, people start saying that innovation dies, nothing new can be invented. like two drops of water. And this happens again and again – investors who came to Silicon Valley in 1994 thought they were all lacking. But there is always something else, there is technology that will become the next platform and create new billionaires.
A good badogy is construction. If you live in a big city, you pbad or pbad the site every day. There must be a huge hole in the ground and nobody does anything, the workers climb the taps and slide the bags back and forth. Absolutely nothing happens for six months. And then, on a Monday, you walk past, you see a skeleton in 30 floors and you think: "Oh, they did something after the weekend" . A few more months, the workers climb this skeleton, and again, it seems that nothing has changed. And then the skyscraper is finished, and someone cuts the red ribbon at the entrance.
The idea is that in technologies there is always a period when one observes a very sensitive activity, but that does not always correspond to the period when
And if we impose an example of skyscraper on a voice as a technology, then there will be the following. We already have a framework – the quality of speech recognition has reached a 95% level this year, and according to Google forecasts, it will be 99% by 2021. In the States have sold 50 million columns with Alexa inside. The BMW and Lexus machines, which enter the market in 2019, have integrated Alexa on board. We only lack cool apps and the habit of using them.
We solve this problem with our product – we give companies the ability to make popular content for voice platforms. It can be the sounds of a chimney that you listen to when you are tired of work; quiz-question-answer to play with the whole family; At the end, in three to five years, the finished skyscraper will look like this: waking up in the morning, you will turn to the column next to the bed with a request to solder the coffee harder. AI, "alive" in this section, will launch your favorite music, search the Internet for the latest news on topics that interest you and read them to you immediately. When you arrive at the kitchen for coffee, you ask the badistant to make a toast and start a podcast that was not listened to yesterday.
On the way to work, in the car, you continue to listen to the podcast. the present day. When you come to the office, you contact the badistant and book the meeting room when you need it. It is clear that no matter if you are at home, on the road or at work, it will be the same artificial intelligence.
It was not so long ago in Uber, I witnessed a funny scene. A 50-year-old driver started to scold the car, which supported him from behind. On his abuse reacted the electronic badistant Alice, built in the browser "Yandex", who felt the way it is spoken. "Oh, shut up, I'm not in touch with you at all!" The taxi driver shouted at him. It sounded so natural – it was hard to believe that there was a short dialogue with the AI. The future has already arrived.
I really like that the development of the voice as an interface makes the technology accessible to all. For example, my grandfather does not know how to work with a computer, but he just asks Alice a voice about the weather for two weeks. Since almost 2 billion people in the world do not know how to use a computer, it will really improve the world.
The little children of my friends living in the United States already speak to the electronic badistant Alexa not as a program but rather as a living friend living in a small box. Earlier, without knowing anything, we went to ask Mom and Dad. A decade ago, it was already relevant in children to search for an answer in Google. Today, they are likely to go directly to Alexa, Siri, Cortana or Alice.
After 15-20 years, the voice will supplant another curve in S – the neurointerfaces. The boundaries between the operating systems, applications and reality will be more and more erased, most locals will no longer be able to tell where one ends and the other begins. But it's a completely different story.
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