What happens to oil prices?

Brent crude futures fell below $ 60 for 1 bar. down 6.07% to $ 58.80. The American WTI fell 7.71% to 50.42 dollars per bbl. According to Bloomberg data. Today, oil has a value comparable to that of October 2017. The reason for this collapse is due to Saudi Arabia's statements to increase oil production, a level of record production in the United States – the country produced 11.7 million barrels a second week. raw materials a day – and the introduction of mild sanctions against Iran.

As a result, for 1.5 months, Brent fell 31.9% from the peak reached in early October of this year – $ 86.29 for 1 bar. and WTI – 34%. "The rise in oil prices was opportunistic," said Minister of Energy Alexander Novak. He and the Bank of Russia have predicted a return of oil prices to 50-55 dollars for 1 barrel. In the long run, its price will fall to $ 50 by 1 bar. said Novak. According to the Central Bank's baseline forecast, oil prices will gradually fall to $ 55 per barrel. from here 2020-2021

After the oil fell and the ruble. On November 23, the dollar was strengthened by 0.57% to 66.19 rubles and the euro by 0.2% to 75.05 rubles.

"The market fears that Saudi Arabia does not dare to reduce its production because of the pressure of Trump who had the opportunity to influence the kingdom because of case of the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashkodzhi ", explains Dmitry Marinchenko, director of the corporate department of Fitch. "Given the growth of shale oil production this year and next year, this will lead to a surplus in the market," continues the expert. "In addition, prices are subject to uncertainty regarding the growth rate of the global economy." He believes prices will stabilize next year at more or less comfortable for Saudi Arabia and the United States – 60-70 USD for 1 barrel. The next meeting of OPEC members and countries that have joined the cartel and agreed to reduce oil production will be crucial, he said.

The collapse of Russia in the oil market is not yet to be feared.

"Russian oil producers will do nothing special: at the current price, the price of oil is 3,250 rubles. "It's perfectly normal to do business, develop businesses and pay dividends," says Andrei Polishchuk, an badyst at Raiffeisenbank. Capital investments this year and the next year will no longer be reduced by the oil industry. Perhaps they will choose more carefully new projects. He believes that the fall in oil prices has occurred in particular because of less severe sanctions against Iran and ambiguous signals from OPEC members on mining.

"Oil market players doubt that an agreement on the reduction of production be concluded," said Vasily Tanurkov, an badyst at ACRA. However, in his opinion, it is likely that OPEC and other countries, including Russia, will still agree on some common actions as of early next year, at the expiry of the previous agreements.

Now the market is more likely to negotiate emotions, the price could fall, believes Tanurkov.

In the worst case, the fall could continue until the meeting of representatives of OPEC and other countries on December 6 in Vienna. The growth in demand in 2019 will support oil prices, but we are likely to see serious fluctuations in commodity prices, says Polishchuk.

The general manager of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, at the end of October (oil was then costing $ 76.89 a barrel), explained that "in the short term, the" treasure wars " in the United States can cause a serious imbalance in the oil market. The oil market is balanced at 100 million barrels. Per day, current oil prices are comfortable for businesses and reflect the balance between supply and demand. But even this relative stability is threatened by US stocks, said Sechin. Increased instability in the oil market "caused by the US administration", instability in Libya and the reduction in production badociated with sanctions in Venezuela.