Sanctions are not important: Russia is holding back

The sanctions have a negative impact on the Russian economy. But now, this is not the main problem. Internal restrictions are much more restrictive for the development of the country. At the same time, the government and the central bank will not stimulate economic growth with loans and public spending. At the same time, officials hope that three years from now, it will be possible to achieve growth rates above 3% per year. The authorities do not fear new sanctions. These are the results of the discussion held at the Russia Calling Investment Forum.

If last year, Russia Calling Forum was like an exhibition of the achievements of officials before the elections, infected with the "optimism virus of the Minister of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin," the participants in the discussion, after being exchanged compliments, nevertheless turned to the problems of the Russian economy.

The first at the first plenary session of the Russia Calling Forum this year was of course the first Vice Prime Minister Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. He was asked a provocative question: how he manages to combine two qualities – think about economic growth and manage the Ministry of Finance.

All are engaged in a goal – an increase in economic growth rates, Siluanov was not embarrbaded. We are creating the conditions for investors to work better, have developed a plan to boost ruble regulations, and facilitate currency legislation, said the official.

In this regard, he recalled the presidential decree of May: its implementation this year will be characterized by a clearer definition of goals and objectives, mainly for the development of Russia's economic potential, as well as by working closely with businesses and regions.

Recall that in the decree of May 2018, the goal was to include Russia among the five largest economies in the world by 2024 and to ensure that economic growth rates are higher than those of the world, while inflation does not exceed 4%.

"Tax policy and incentives will tackle this goal with the strictest follow-up of these and other goals. We have even entrusted our departments with the task of increasing investments, which has never been done, "Siluanov said.

The President of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the government measures on which he is actively working will enable him to give the effect he intends to have, namely to increase labor productivity, competitiveness, that is, say "essentially increase potential growth rates".

In his opinion, the Russian economy could begin to develop by 2021. somewhere at 3% per year. Now the economy is growing at a rate of growth of 1.5 to 2% at a rate close to potential, which means that monetary politicians can not increase growth, she graciously withdrew from the Bank of Russia responsibility for economic growth.

In September, at a meeting of the Board of Directors, the Bank of Russia tightened monetary for the first time since 2014, raising the policy rate from 7.25% to 7.5%. This has resulted in an increase in the growth rates of the economy and, according to experts, a slowdown in economic growth.

The head of the Central Bank also touched on another recently popular topic: ruble regulations. According to Nabiullina, the ruble regulations will become attractive if there is no doubt that the purchasing power of the Russian currency will not fall and that inflation will remain weak.

"We have taken and are taking a number of regulatory measures to make bank banking more profitable on both the pbadive and the active side: diversification of reserve requirement requirements, risk factors for foreign currency borrowings. been increased in the calculation of capital adequacy "Nabiullina.

According to her, the most fundamental element for the ruble to be attractive for payments is the confidence in the fact that its purchasing power does not depreciate. This requires low inflation and, of course, low volatility of the ruble for international payments, said the head of the Central Bank.

Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin supported previous speakers. According to him, Russia can not be taken as an example in Turkey, whereas with the help of credits, it would "pump the economy" and that there was now a recession.

However, Alexei Kudrin, head of the Accounts Chamber, did not really like the talk about economic growth. The Chamber of Accounts "It is difficult to stimulate the development of the economy," he admitted. But Kudrin knows for sure that a "strategic audit" can contribute to growth.

He remembered the previous May decree and asked why he had not been executed. In terms of investment, our country should reach 27% of GDP against only 21%. In the new presidential decree of May, another criterion was defined: 25%, but for some reason not discussed, which prevented the implementation of the previous May decree.

For other indicators, the situation is no better either: instead of creating 25 million high-performing jobs, they have created only 16 million. The goal of increasing labor productivity has not been achieved either.

"We have generally heard that someone & # 39; a scolded for that? I did not hear, "said Kudrin. According to him, they are now more likely to punish non-compliance with current orders, not strategic orders.

Over the past ten years, the state's share of the economy has increased from 39% to 48%, and the lack of success in developing an innovative economy is due to "insufficient public sector work" he continued.

Russia loses around 1.5% of GDP because of Sanctions, however, because the structural problems are not solved, Russia loses much more, says Kudrin.

At the same time, according to participants in the debate, Russia is not very afraid of sanctions. "What will be, it will be," VTB leader Andrei Kostin said philosophically during the discussion. There is no need to "meet the expectations" of sanctions, but the bank has various plans for their imposition.

Andrei Kostin in general is more worried about the situation in Ukraine. According to him, the Ukrainian "girl" of a financial group (VTB Bank), which had been declared insolvent by the National Bank of Ukraine the day before, was ready to fulfill all the obligations contracted towards the customers, but He was not allowed to do that.

"Ukraine is a fantastic country, it reminds me of a fairy tale about the mirror. Things that are absolutely incredible from a common sense point of view happen there, "said Kostin.

"Well, today they imposed sanctions on us, and then the Ukrainian authorities imposed additional sanctions, banning any movement of funds from Ukraine to Russia," he said. After that, the Ukrainian regulator demanded that "banks provide liquidity" to Russian-owned banks.

Stocks are stopped, holdings are stopped, but "let liquidity meet all the requirements," added Kostin.

Anton Siluanov noted that any sanctions on the Russian state debt are unpleasant for Russia and the investors who buy it. He is confident that if foreign players do not buy Russian OFS (federal loans), "we will be able to do without", although that "will accompany an increase in the cost of the loan ".

On the sidelines of the meeting, he explained that the Ministry of Finance would not realize the plan to place the free zones on the domestic market this year, whereas it had already been reduced in the last amendments to the budget of 2018 .

Earlier, the Ministry of Finance announced a reduction of 400 billion rubles of its net borrowing plan for 2018. At the same time, recent auctions have shown "a pretty good demand," Siluanov noted.

In general, according to him, Russia is "practically independent of external conditions" and the country does not need to borrow on a costly basis.

The fact that the Ministry of Finance placed on November 27, for the first time in five years, euro-sovereign bonds to 1 billion euros to 3%, he explained by the fact that Russia is an "important presence" in the international market. According to Siluanov, the decision itself was taken "unexpectedly": a week before the placement, investors showed interest in the investment and the Ministry of Finance organized profitability.

At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Finance said that the share of foreign investment participation in the investment exceeded 75%.