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Have you ever felt that the world was divided in two: a part continues to drink kefir, think about how to grow tomatoes in the country and save for Pbadat, the second has almost completely migrated to the country. virtual space – clean, bright, full and rich. And these two realities seem to be irrelevant. "Cloud" technologies, neural networks, "smart homes" – all these luminous phenomena concern the lives of only a few young people: hipsters, computer scientists and geeks. The lot of the majority is kartoha and discounts in the store. Of course not. We will try to show you, with the help of simple and concrete examples, the depth of advanced technologies in the life of every citizen of the country. And also a parrot for a fast future.
As a starting point, we take exactly the "cloud" technology. This branch of computer science is today at the forefront of most of the most innovative ideas that, in fact, are already changing our lives with you. Moreover, it is time to state a fact – in the digital "clouds" we are bogged down at the highest level, and it's time to talk about what threatens us (with threats that are becoming more and more real every day). Finally, we will address a very important topic: what is happening in society, where the Internet is a vital necessity, and we can compare it to electricity and running water without exaggeration.
Who is it?
ActiveCloud IT Director Ruslan Raykevich will help us understand this. It can be said that he is engaged in high technology all his life. He has held senior positions in the telecommunications sector. For ten years he has been developing cloud services, systems and hosting. In his spare time, Ruslan does his own thing with smart devices to improve his life.
What is it?
About real "smart home"
– We are talking about the digital revolution, but ordinary users of gadgets do not notice any global change. Consider, for example, the concept of "smart home," which is widely known today, but one has the feeling that things have not gone further than global ideas, guidelines.
"I hope that in the near future, with the current development of technologies, we will have the concept of 'smart home' no longer in the form of a fantastic idea, but as a completely ordinary reality . Intelligent refrigerators, smart toasters, smart boilers, smart coffee makers … "Cleverness" will be the subject of the basic configuration of any appliance and all home appliances, but you have to understand what it really means.
Ten or fifteen years ago, we had imagined a situation: to make a thing "smart", you have to insert a lot of components that will allow you to receive and process the information received.
Today, the device no longer needs to receive information, these can be processed in the cloud. The module that allows to do it can be ordered in China for $ 1 each. So much for all fiction.
It's clear that in the end, when, sooner or later, all things – from power outlets and ending with a toothbrush – become intelligent, we will not customize them separately. It will look more like this: having decided to make pizza tomorrow, I will find a recipe in my smartphone. The refrigerator will automatically check the ingredients and order the missing items upon delivery, which will be executed by focusing on your work schedule. The temperature program will load in the oven and the cooking recommendations will be displayed on the tablet and, of course, the pizza pizzerias ready to provide you with a similar product if you decide not to worry about cooking.
All these processes, I repeat, will occur in the electronic clouds and not on the devices in your home. I think that they have already collected enough information to complete the scenario described above. The refrigerator, of course, does not take into account the number of eggs left, but it is quite possible to badume that they are no longer sufficient since the last order of home delivery.
When we talk about a certain concept of "ingenuity", we mean not separate devices, each of them being able to do wonders, but all of the same. infrastructure, where working together makes life easier. Now, the functions of the "smart home" are rather limited to the design features, but the flight of our imagination.
– It turned out that if the question before was how to turn on and off the iron remotely, the main problem today is how to make sure that all this mbad of smart things work properly.
– Basically, yes. Moreover, they should not just satisfy your desires, but anticipate them. When I got in the car last night, the browser immediately said: "Estimated time to go to such a house." I did not ask him about it, he just compared the facts (my schedule, my previous routes, my time) and suggested I go home. All technologies strive to make sure that a person performs an action with them in a word, in a movement, in a gesture. Ideally, no gesture is necessary, everything seems to happen by itself …
The last step to complete the immersion in the network – reliability
– Twenty years ago, candles or even kerosene lamps were kept in all the apartments in Minsk. Electricity at that time was already quite normal and bbad, but still, on the basis of "candle stocks", people did not trust him one hundred percent. The evolution of consciousness has occurred – now almost no one has candles.
Is something similar happening on the Internet? It has become a necessity, but so far, in the constancy to which not everyone believes. Perhaps the last step towards transitioning to a "smart home", to total trust in electronic clouds, etc., is not really a broadband connection, but a stable stability (like the presence of electricity in the point of sale) Internet?
– I fully support, except for one thing – we have already achieved such stability. If there are other defects, they will be removed in the coming years. Nowadays, in England, the Internet is linked to essential services, it must be present in the life of a person, as well as electricity and running water.
– You probably still generalized and only talk about big cities. Although they are nowhere near all that is pink, affordable and stable – stay close to any building, dozens of people sit literally on top of each other and this "overcrowding" can only affect the quality of the communication.
– I do not agree with you. First, in Belarus, the stability of Internet access is at a very, very good level. I am constantly going to the region of Minsk and Gomel. So, there are very few places where there are communication problems. Only if you close the road and go to the bottom of the forest. And then most often 2G or EDGE "ends". Talk to people living in Europe, in some states of America, and you will be surprised to learn that the quality and accessibility of the Internet are many times worse than ours. We quickly get used to good things and we regret now that these good things are not ideal.
As for the big cities … See how the parking is filled in Minsk. When Khrushchev and Stalinki were designed, no one thought that there would be so many cars in the capital. The same thing is happening now with technology. Of course, we were expecting the boom of wireless communication, but no one thought it would be so serious that every apartment would have its own wireless point of access. But the problem is solved. For example, Wi-Fi at 5 GHz is a wider range with the ability to connect more devices. This is the ideal solution for apartments. It is now actively implemented. If you have problems with "cramped", try this option, I think it will help you.
The flagship products of smartphones will remain relevant even when power is not needed
– If everything is calculated in the clouds, why do we need powerful devices: game consoles, smartphones, tablets, laptops? It turns out that Microsoft, Google Apple and other companies cut off the branch on which they are sitting? Can we badume that clouds will become "killers" of state-of-the-art devices?
– I do not think that will happen. Clouds do not affect sales of high-end devices, but work in parallel with them. Yes, with the new Internet paradigm, smartphones do not have to be powerful, they have a lot of memory, all their faults can be offset by the cloud. But after all, they have many other interesting modules that can not be simply replaced by an increase in "remote" computing power.
Take one of the eternal trends of the smartphone market: the search for photo quality. The camera can not be replaced by a cloud, just like different blood pressure sensors, gyroscopes and other functional modules. All content and applications of the future will be given from the cloud. But at the same time, it will remain a physical device – for example, a smartphone that will interact with the bank terminals, take photos, read blood pressure, check blood sugar … Manufacturers understand it, so you can see how much between them leave the race to power. development of new modules and functions.
If you are satisfied, pull a smartphone for $ 50, – excellent. I think very soon, productivity will no longer be his "bottleneck". But if you need to regularly monitor your pressure and pulse, do other medical research – get ready to shell out money for your smartphone and so much more.
There are personal wearable devices that can be developed even in the infinite. I'm sure high-end processor manufacturers will stay afloat, they will build hardware for data centers, and video card creators will be redirected to server solutions for streaming games.
Future: did not have time to think – You already did
– Can we expect an incredible technical breakthrough soon? Where can the equipment manufacturers go in 10 years?
– As pathetic as it may seem, everything will grow in favor of consumer comfort. Not for reasons of altruism, but because comfort is easy to sell. In other words, they will ring us at the door and the voice badistant will immediately indicate that a speaker or plumber has come, he has already visited before, but no one has opened to him. The artificial intelligence, which is now in the clouds, will actually learn ahead of our thoughts. We will not have time to think about our desires, but they will be filled. The smartphone as a portable universal device will occupy more and more positions in our lives. I judge it myself, because I open my laptop at home more and more rarely to work. I have enough smartphone – it's Internet and "smart home" management.
– And we're going to enter the text and commands with a voice (we already talk about it said)?
– of course. After 10 years you can forget about the keyboard on the screen. Although it's pretty hard to imagine how to dictate our personal messages to a circle of colleagues or on public transport. It is possible that the writing remains, but voice commands and communication with the electronic badistants will prevail. Voice technologies are developing rapidly in conjunction with artificial intelligence, pushing communication between humans and technology to a whole new level.
And of course, augmented reality. As a way to visualize the information, it looks very promising. Although the technology is still clearly wet, you can talk with confidence about its widespread use even after 10 years. While we use the phone, we can find the constellations with confidence or use the virtual rule. This is not enough to bring augmented reality to the forefront.
About the possibility of a digital apocalypse
– The future, where the AI, living in the electronic clouds, predicts our thoughts and desires, is a bit scared …
– Even the most positive changes will always scare us, especially as they radically alter the established way of life. It should be mentioned that the resulting convenience still generates potential problems. What kind of C is a matter of autonomy and security. When calculators appeared, people forgot how to count in their minds.
Similarly, with the advent of Google, people are no longer relying on their memory. Now, with the wallets built into the phone, you do not really need to carry money with you. But if suddenly the phone breaks, sits or is stolen, you have no wallet or connection left. Panic is settling.
We lose survival skills without these technologies. There is always a small percentage of probability of failure of a data center, attacks on DNS servers and termination of a critical service. At this point, the problems begin.
– You mean that the apocalypse begins. It's terrible to imagine what will happen if, for example, all of Google's servers are disconnected. (And this happens, the last time Google Cloud issues were noticed on the night of June 2-3 – Internet users could not use YouTube, PayPal, and Gmail for hours. .)
– Our children who are already growing up with digital services can be in an extremely dangerous situation. Now, for many people think and remember the Internet. Now imagine the future, where the food is cooked in a smart pan according to the recipe of the network and where the fire in the chimney lights up as expected. Suddenly, at some point, all of this stops working and people have to take care of themselves, learn to light a fire or search for food, without having to order it over the Internet.
– Do the clouds make a person defenseless?
– They act as a benevolent mediator who "attaches" all the actions of a person to herself. A generation is growing that can not survive without clouds. I'm not sure that in 10 years, Google is worried about disabling its services. This can be any other company, a startup that today is born only in the mind of a young man. In addition, when you talk about multinational companies providing information services, keep in mind that disabling their services may not only be an emergency, but also a planning. In case of local conflicts or hostilities, you can voluntarily disable the services of a large company, be it Google or another. This is a subject of manipulation.
– It turns out that a company that has mbad services has more power than the governments of different states?
– Of course, science fiction stories about ruling societies are an intimate reality. Everything will be consolidated – small businesses will merge to become big. And these big companies will have the potential to lead the world. It all depends on how much they want and can take advantage of the opportunity. Not only are we discussing it now. In some countries, they try to replace external services with premises in case of Internet disconnection. As an IT specialist, I understand that it is not very difficult to disconnect a country from the Internet. If a real conflict occurs, it can be done. Therefore, the state must rely on local services, otherwise it becomes very quickly dependent on external companies and services.
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