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The regulator held today a meeting on the implementation of monetary policy for the first half of the year. According to the regulator, the main goal of monetary policy for next year is to limit inflation to within 5%. At the same time, plans to reduce the refinancing rate to 9-9.5% per annum.
About economic development forecasts
The government and the National Bank are now actively working on a forecast of the development of the economy and the monetary sphere in 2019, reports BELTA
L & # 39; main goal is to maintain inflation in the 5%, to this end, the National Bank will continue to use the monetary targeting mode. The increase in the average broad money supply is projected at 9-12%. According to the macroeconomic forecast, the refinancing rate could be reduced to 9-9.5% per annum by the end of 2019.
The increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves of the countries at least $ 7.1 billion (2 months of imports of goods and services)
– The success of the policy, prices, financial and macroeconomic stability in the country will be largely determined by the coherence of the actions of the National Bank, the banking system and the Belarussian government. About the Belarusian ruble exchange rate
In the second quarter of 2018, the Belarusian ruble's real exchange rate approached its equilibrium values, the report says. . On the one hand, this has a positive effect on inflationary processes since it has reduced the pressure mainly from the prices of imported goods. On the other hand, such nominal exchange dynamics, due to natural causes, will help to increase the external stability of the economy. non-price factors of its competitiveness. During the second half of 2018, the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble should remain close to its equilibrium level. In view of these advantages of the floating exchange rate, the National Bank intends to maintain current approaches to exchange rate policy. At the same time, as part of the transition to the inflation targeting regime, it is planned to gradually reduce the volume of monetary transactions aimed at limiting the volatility of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate and, consequently, to reduce the exchange rate. The importance of money in the transmission mechanism. in the field of currency and inflation risks. Considering the considerable amounts of arrears of loans in foreign currency (loans), Belarusian companies and the budget can suffer significant financial losses. With the depreciation of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar by 1%, the loss of enterprises from the revaluation of foreign currency debt to Belarusian banks will rise to 230 million, the loss of the budget to the revaluation of the debt outdoor – 330 million rubles. circulation process. According to the National Bank, the estimated total amount of the country's losses due to dollarization can be estimated at about 2-3% of GDP per year – Therefore, the ruble's share in the badets of the banking sector should gradually become decisive. Only in this case, we can properly train the price of money in the economy, which ensures the achievement of the goal of inflation. This will not only strengthen the work of the chain of interest, but will also reduce the demand for foreign exchange, noted in the report. In addition to decisions on the compulsory reserve fund, the National Bank advised banks on the formation of foreign exchange rates in relation to key indicators of foreign financial markets. These changes helped normalize interest rates on foreign currency deposits, while ensuring more attractive conditions for domestic currency savings. The measures implemented have already made it possible to increase the share of the ruble on 1 July 2018 to 38%. currency on the domestic foreign exchange market. The National Bank has developed a number of draft normative legal acts in the field of civil, banking and monetary legislation, which provide for a significant reduction in the use of foreign exchange in settlements. During the work on the new edition of the Tax Code, the National Bank proposed to make appropriate adjustments to the legislation to ensure the receipt of taxes, duties, duties in the Belarusian rubles in the budget. Our channel in Telegram. Quick communication with the editor: read the chat Onliner public and write us at Viber!
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