Citizens have hidden money at home sanctions

Calculations by badysts at the Center for the Development of the University of Economics (HSE) confirmed that, pending the possibility of US sanctions, the transfer of deposits from the largest public banks to Private banks are widespread among Russian investors. According to the bulletin "Comments on the State and Business", only in September of Sberbank and VTB, depositors have cashed more than 150 billion rubles, while the influx of deposits in the private Raiffeisenbank Alpha Bank it amounted to 27.2 billion rubles. The rest was not spent – in October, with the removal of the threat of new sanctions for the future, withdrawn deposits began to return to the banking system.

The next issue of the HSE Development Center's "Comments on State and Business" (.pdf) confirmed Kommersant's earlier badumptions that in August-September because of increase the risk of imposing US sanctions and the next round of ruble devaluation citizens are actively taking their deposits of state banks.

Due to the clients' flight from the risk of sanctions, the main "losers" have become the largest state-controlled banks:

so, according to HSE badysts, decrease in deposits in the Sberbank (taking into account the revaluation of the currency) amounted to 121.8 billion rubles. (minus 1%), VTB – 33.9 billion rubles. (less 1%, although the bank is already under US sanctions since 2014), at the Central Bank under control after reorganization Binbank – 19 billion rubles. (less 4.2%), in Gazprombank – 15 billion rubles. (minus 1.8%).

The increase in deposits during the same period was observed in the Raiffeisenbank, a private company (14.2 billion rubles).. plus 3.4%) and Alpha Bank (13 billion rubles. plus 1.4%) – however, a certain influx of deposits was also found in VTB and Russian Post Mail Bank (8.7 billion rubles. plus 3.5%) and the State Agricultural Bank, also under sanctions since 2014 (9.4 billion rubles). plus 1%).

The total volume of personal deposits in September decreased 0.7%. The value of the increase in public funds in banks "from year to year" decreased from 6.6% to 5.8%. As regards the monetary structure of deposits, their share in rubles has been reduced by 0.7% and that in currency by 0.5%. It should be noted that Rosstat had previously estimated the total outflow of retail funds from savings (in the Rosstat method, it was the change in deposits, the purchase of securities, the change in accounts of individual entrepreneurs and credit arrears, the purchase of real estate) at 0.9% of disposable income in September against a 1 1% exit in August (compared with 5.5% a year earlier).

At the same time, if in August the population deducted 1.8% of funds in deposits and securities in the bank, then in September 3% of revenues.

As indicated in the "Comments …", the cash flow table illustrates the exit of the securities resident individuals In recent months, the accounts of Citibank "- thus, in July, the volume of current account receipts in rubles was 2.3 times higher than normal and the volume of deposits in rubles at the end of the period was multiplied by 3.7. But over the next two months, it was possible to see the withdrawal of these funds from the bank. In August, a similar situation occurred with foreign currency funds when receipts on current accounts resident individuals increased 4.6 times compared to normal values. At the same time, the withdrawal of these funds from the bank started the same month.

"The most likely explanation for this abnormal momentum is, in our view, the sale by Citibank's clients of large sets of Russian securities, in rubles and currencies, in anticipation of the tightening of the sanctions regime by the US authorities. Therefore, in our calculations, the dynamics of the population funds in the banking system uses data freed from these emissions, "says the HSE.

It should be noted that the population did not spend money withdrawn from state-owned banks: the share of expenditure on the consumption of goods and services in the country was 81.9% in September, as against 82, 6% in August, which did not affect the increase in retail sales, purchases with the purchase of cards from abroad. online stores slightly increased, reaching 3.8% of sales in September, compared to 3.7% in August. However, in September, 4.5% of receipts and 4.6% in August were spent on foreign exchange, with the nominal exchange rate falling from 66.1 rubles to 67.7 rubles.

After surviving the news and monetary shock of August-September, in October, citizens returned their deposits to banks and also spent to pay overdue debts and reduce the number of new bank loans.

Oleg Sapozhkov, Alexey Shapovalov